U.S. LNG exports could face a $120 billion impact based on changes in Russian gas flow to Europe. Three scenarios predict varying impacts on U.S. LNG investments, with up to 29 MMtpa in project decisions at stake. U.S. LNG currently supplies 50% of Europe’s LNG imports and approximately 15% of its total gas supply.

A new study by S&P Global Commodity Insights warns of a significant impact on U.S. LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) exports if European policies regarding Russian gas change. The study outlines three possible scenarios: “Current Trend” (33.7 million metric tons per annum, MMtpa), “Opening the Taps” (16.5 MMtpa), and “Phasing Down” (45.5 MMtpa), each with varying impacts on U.S. LNG investments.

In an “Opening the Taps” scenario, lifting sanctions on Russian gas could lead to a reduction of over 17 MMtpa in new U.S. LNG projects, curtailing $70 billion in related investments. Conversely, under a “Phasing Down” scenario — consistent with the EU’s REPowerEU Roadmap — stricter restrictions on Russian gas could enhance U.S. LNG investments by 12 MMtpa, representing an additional $48 billion investment.

The U.S. currently supplies 50% of Europe’s LNG imports and 15% of its total gas supply. The study underscores the vulnerability of U.S. LNG to geopolitical shifts, as it functions as a balancing supply for global markets due to its contractual structures. The $120 billion differential highlights the potential volatility in U.S. LNG investment, emphasizing the importance of European policy decisions in shaping future outcomes.