Brazil could significantly increase exports of up to 180 products to five European Union countries following the ratification of the long-pending trade agreement between Mercosur and the EU, according to the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (ApexBrasil), which operates under the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC).

The study focuses on potential export gains to Spain, Greece, Ireland, Italy, and Portugal, and includes only products already manufactured in Brazil. While many of the goods are agricultural, such as food items and live animals, ApexBrasil notes that there are also meaningful opportunities in industrial exports. These include engines and pistons and their components; plastic sheets, films, strips, and plates; as well as lenses and optical devices.

In a separate scenario, ApexBrasil analyzed potential opportunities should a tariff dispute erupt between the United States and the European Union, regardless of whether the Mercosur-EU deal is approved. Under this scenario, Brazil could benefit in six key export categories. Chief among them is crude oil: Brazilian exports of crude to the EU reached $12.7 billion in 2024, compared with $45.6 billion from the U.S. The other five areas with export growth potential include soybeans, selected pharmaceutical products, ethanol, zinc ore, and boneless beef.

MDIC estimates that the trade agreement would sharply increase the share of Brazilian exports covered by preferential trade deals, from the current 13.8% to 27.4%, enhancing the competitiveness of Brazilian products in global markets.

In 2024, total trade between Brazil and the EU reached $95.5 billion, up 4.2% from the previous year. Brazilian exports to the bloc totaled $48.3 billion, an increase of 4.3%. Although still concentrated in primary goods, the export portfolio is considered diversified by Brazilian standards, with crude oil and bituminous mineral oils accounting for 23% of total shipments. Imports from the EU amounted to $47.2 billion, a 4% increase, led by industrial goods, according to data from the MDIC’s ComexStat platform.