See our full XRP forecast here.
Bitcoin Holds Above $100,000 as US-China Trade Talks Loom
While XRP consolidated, bitcoin (BTC) faced mild profit-taking ahead of crucial US-China trade talks. Investors locked in profits after the US-UK trade deal, with attention now turning to the higher-stakes negotiations with China.
President Trump added uncertainty. CN Wire reported:
“China should open up its market to USA. Trump says tariff on China up to Bessent. Trump says 80% tariff on China seems right.”
The key question is whether China would reciprocate if the US lowers its 145% tariff to 80%. Recent rhetoric suggests a prolonged trade war if punitive tariffs remain.
US BTC-Spot ETF Flows Support Market Stability
Despite modest losses, BTC held above $100,000 for the first time since February 1. Institutional money flows delivered price support before the US and China resume trade talks. The US BTC-spot ETF market extended its inflow streak to three sessions on May 9. According to Farside Investors, key flows included:
BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported net inflows of $356.2 million
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $45 million.
Meanwhile, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) had combined net outflows of $79.8 million.
IBIT extended its inflow streak to nineteen sessions, reinforcing BlackRock’s dominance in the crypto-spot ETF space.
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas remarked on the importance of the ETF market and sticky institutional money, stating:
“More stable holders = more stable price. ETFs and Saylor have gobbled up ton of btc ‘dumps’ over past 15mo.”
Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of Cryptoquant, remarked on the shifting dynamic to BTC price trends, stating:
“It feels like it’s time to throw out that cycle theory. New liquidity sources and volume are becoming more uncertain, signaling a transition as the Bitcoin market merges with TradFi. Now, instead of worrying about old whales selling, it’s more important to focus on how much new liquidity is coming from institutions and ETFs since this new influx can outweigh even strong whale sell-offs.”
BTC Price Outlook: Policy and Legislation in Focus
BTC dipped 0.24% on May 9, partially reversing Thursday’s 6.27% rally to close at $102,852.
Key catalysts ahead include US-China trade negotiations, US CPI data, ETF trends, and developments on the Bitcoin Act.
Potential scenarios:
Bearish Scenario: Rising US-China tensions, rising US inflation, stagflation fears, resistance to the Bitcoin Act, and ETF outflows. Bearish sentiment could send BTC toward $90,000.
Bullish Scenario: A US-China trade agreement, softer US inflation, pro-crypto legislation, and ETF inflows. Bullish sentiment could drive BTC above the record high of $109,312.
Senator Cynthia Lummis recently reintroduced the Bitcoin Act, proposing the US acquire one million BTC over five years with a 20-year hold, potentially tightening supply significantly.