‘The Model’, Eurovoix’s data simulation of the Eurovision Song Contest, has made its official prediction for Semi-Final One of Eurovision 2025 today.
‘The Model’ is predicting that Sweden will comfortably win the first semi-final, with KAJ’s song “Bara Bada Bastu” projected to score 184 points in tonight’s public vote. If it achieved that score, Sweden’s song would score more than “Cha Cha Cha” and “Rim Tim Tagi Dim” in its semi-final.
In this official prediction, the system also predicts the five countries that will miss out on Saturday’s final. Cyprus is projected to exit at the semi-final stage, and will join Slovenia, Portugal, Croatia and Azerbaijan on the sidelines if this projection is exactly right. This means that Iceland and San Marino are now both predicted to qualify for the Grand Final.
Today’s prediction of Semi-Final One takes everything we know into account. It includes data from the current betting odds, community song rankings and polls, and also includes the findings from last night’s Eurovision Audience Poll, jointly organised by Eurovoix. As a result, The Model’s prediction attempts to be the most accurate of tonight’s show.
What is The Model?
This semi-final prediction comes from a simulation system called The Model. The Model is a system that uses data like betting odds, community song rankings, historical voting patterns, and even internal musical statistics to try to predict which songs stand the best chance of winning the contest.
Using this data, The Model calculates the expected points of every song in both the semi-finals and final of the contest. While other projections leading up to the contest have only been ‘nowcasts’ of what could happen on a given day, this prediction is the official calculation of what The Model expects to happen tonight.
Last year, The Model successfully projected on the day of the Grand Final that Switzerland would win Eurovision 2024. For more information on what The Model is, and how it works, read our guide here:
Also, if you want to learn more about The Model, it was recently featured in a stream from YouTuber ESC Gabe yesterday. Featuring myself (James, The Model’s creator), I tried to offer some insight into what The Model does to calculate possible Eurovision results, and answered some questions about it with both Gabe and his audience.
The Result
Semi-Final One’s Official Prediction from ‘The Model’
Now, let’s get into the full results of The Model’s prediction of Semi-Final One.
Mamagama rehearsing Run With U for Azerbaijan at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Sarah Louise Bennett/ EBU
15th Place – 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: Mamagama – “Run With U”
The Model predicts that Azerbaijan will finish in last place in this semi-final. “Run With U” from Mamagama is expected to score just a singular point tonight, which is projected to come from Ukraine. Azerbaijan finished with just 13 votes in last night’s Eurovision Audience Poll out of 1643 total responses.
“Run With U”, then, seems to be struggling to connect with audiences based on current data. Not only that, Azerbaijan has been dealt a difficult draw and is lacking voting allies. It’s positioning in the running order after Belgium, which appears to be a big winner from Monday’s rehearsals, also appears to be working against it.
Marko Bošnjak rehearsing Poison Cake for Croatia at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Sarah Louise Bennett/ EBU
14th Place – 🇭🇷 Croatia: Marko Bošnjak – “Poison Cake”
One place above, Marko Bosnjak is predicted to score 11 points in tonight’s semi-final with his song “Poison Cake”. The song has struggled to find a foothold in the odds since its victory at Croatia’s national final, Dora, and today’s prediction appears to show that it has been unable to generate momentum from Monday’s rehearsal and jury show.
Croatia picked up 18 votes in last night’s Eurovision Audience Poll, which also placed it in 14th there. Unfortunately, it’s also dropped by ten points from The Model’s most recent projection on Sunday, suggesting that the full reveal of the performance on stage hasn’t helped Croatia’s chances at the contest.
NAPA rehearsing Deslocado for Portugal at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Sarah Louise Bennett/ EBU
13th Place – 🇵🇹 Portugal: NAPA – “Deslocado”
Coming in 13th according to The Model is Portugal. “Deslocado” by NAPA is one of the more understated songs of this semi-final, with it projected to be a song far more favourable with the juries than most in the lineup. However, with all the power lying with the public vote, NAPA appear to be facing an uphill battle to qualify.
The five-piece band’s song has climbed slightly on Sunday with two extra points. But it appears to be struggling mainly because of the running order, where they have to perform after heavy favourites Sweden. Portugal placed 12th in the Eurovision Audience Poll with 29 votes as well, meaning audiences in Basel don’t seem to love this either.
Klemen rehearsing How Much Time Do We Have Left for Slovenia at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Sarah Louise Bennett/ EBU
12th Place – 🇸🇮 Slovenia: Klemen – “How Much Time Do We Have Left?”
In 12th, The Model is far less bullish than the bookmakers on Klemen’s qualification chances. While it’s currently seen as a strong contender to qualify in the betting odds, The Model has it scoring just 14 points in tonight’s semi-final. It could be because that’s a ballad, which on average are far more jury-friendly, but are there other factors at play?
Slovenia’s position in the running order, between Poland and Estonia, is a difficult one to perform in. The Eurovision Audience Poll placed this in joint 10th place with 39 votes, although from personal experience a lot of people voting for it openly told us it made them cry. That could mean a strong reaction from TV viewers tonight, and this is the one prediction I’m personally least confident on.
Theo Evan rehearsing Shh for Cyprus at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Alma Bengtsson/ EBU
11th Place – 🇨🇾 Cyprus: Theo Evan – “Ssh”
The biggest news from The Model’s Semi-Final One prediction, though, is undoubtedly Cyprus. Despite an elaborate staging from Sergio Jaen and being in its top ten since it began making projections, rehearsals from Monday have sent Cyprus down to 11th in The Model. It’s predicted to score 54 points tonight, but still miss out on Saturday’s big show.
The song placed joint 10th in last night’s Audience Poll with Slovenia, taking 39 votes from audiences inside the St. Jakobshalle Arena. The huge odds drop appears to be led by a concern over Theo Evan’s vocals on stage more than anything else – many who voted for Cyprus last night told me that they were voting based on how cool the staging looked.
VÆB rehearsing RÓA for Iceland at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Alma Bengtsson/ EBU
10th Place – 🇮🇸 Iceland: VÆB – “Róa”
Into the qualifiers now – and in 10th place, The Model is predicting that VÆB will steal the last spot in the Grand Final with their song “Róa”, scoring 68 points from the public. Iceland are opening tonight’s semi-final, which is always a strong spot in the running order, and it appears their fun staging connected with many who watched Monday’s jury show.
Iceland placed a strong eighth place in last night’s Audience Poll with 106 votes – only 5 votes away from sixth place. Speaking from personal experience, many of the people voting for Iceland were often kids and teenagers too. The Minecraft-influenced staging, then, may do enough to convince a younger demographic to take Iceland into the final.
Justyna Steczkowska rehearsing GAJA for Poland at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Alma Bengtsson/ EBU
9th Place – 🇵🇱 Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – “Gaja”
Poland is predicted to come in 9th by The Model, with Justyna Steczkowska projected to score 72 points with “Gaja”. The song also placed ninth in last night’s Eurovision Audience Poll with 62 votes. Poland is also performing in position 2, which is known as the “death slot” among Eurovision fans, making this arguably more impressive.
Poland’s odds improvements throughout the last few days seem to have been driven by Justyna’s high-energy performance, including her hanging from ropes above the stage at one point. While “Gaja” is seven points down on The Model’s Sunday projection, it’s still predicted to have what it takes to qualify.
Shkodra Elektronike rehearsing Zjerm for Albania at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Sarah Louise Bennett/ EBU
8th Place – 🇦🇱 Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – “Zjerm”
Perhaps one of the most surprising projections by The Model is that Albania will only come in eighth place tonight with 75 points. “Zjerm” by Shkodra Elektronike is a huge fan favourite, with an impressive and immersive staging, and it’s scored well in the community rankings and in last night’s Eurovision Audience Poll, coming fifth with 131 votes.
However, there are some things that may be bringing Albania’s ceiling a bit lower. Firstly, many bookmakers aren’t willing to set the kind of odds that would make Albania look like a contender for victory. Secondly, while they placed highly in the audience poll, there’s a huge Albanian diaspora here in Switzerland – if anything, it placed lower than expected.
Gabry Ponte rehearsing Tutta L’Italia for San Marino at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Alma Bengtsson/ EBU
7th Place – 🇸🇲 San Marino: Gabry Ponte – “Tutta l’Italia”
And The Model’s biggest surprise? The huge rise for “Tutta l’Italia” from San Marino. Gabry Ponte’s song has climbed 30 points from Sunday’s projection to today’s prediction, with San Marino now projected to sail through to Saturday with 84 points. This is mainly driven by a phenomenal showing in last night’s Audience Poll, coming fourth with 134 votes.
From my personal experience, many who voted for the song did it singing its catchy hook as they came out of the arena. Despite some concerns from fans over the staging, which places Ponte rather than the singers at centre-stage, it’s the song that seems to be driving this into the final. With betting odds also shortening, it’s looking more likely that San Marino makes it.
Tommy Cash rehearsing Espresso Macchiato for Estonia at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Alma Bengtsson/ EBU
6th Place – 🇪🇪 Estonia: Tommy Cash – “Espresso Macchiato”
In sixth place, The Model predicts Tommy Cash to finish slightly lower than many bookmakers are expecting. “Espresso Macchiato” is sixth in this projection, scoring 89 points from the public tonight if The Model is 100% right. This is despite a strong showing in last night’s Audience Poll, finishing in third with 138 votes.
The biggest concern for Estonia, at least in The Model’s eyes, has been the draw. Estonia is without its main allies Latvia, Lithuania and Finland in this semi-final, all of whom would have been expected to give Tommy Cash big points. But the fact that many outside St. Jakobshalle voted for this suggests it will do very well in the final – even if many called it “Latte Macchiato”!
Claude rehearsing Cest La Vie for Netherlands at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Sarah Louise Bennett/ EBU
5th Place – 🇳🇱 Netherlands: Claude – “C’est la Vie”
Claude is in fifth place with The Model, with “C’est la Vie” projected to take 99 points in tonight’s show to sail through to the final. This is despite concerns that emerged through rehearsal week about Claude’s vocals in the 30-second clip released of the performance. This led to the song dropping in the odds and falling in The Model’s Sunday update.
However, a stronger performance in the jury show last night appears to have assuaged bettors concerns about Claude’s potential. With a better vocal, the song has actually climbed by a point since Sunday. But the big indication that Claude is doing well with the public came from last night’s Audience Poll, where it came an excellent second place with 197 votes.
Kyle Alessandro rehearsing Lighter for Norway at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Sarah Louise Bennett/ EBU
4th Place – 🇳🇴 Norway: Kyle Alessandro – “Lighter”
The Model is more bullish, though, about Norway. Although it is down by six points on Sunday, Kyle Alessandro is predicted to finish a strong fourth in this semi-final with 103 points. While Estonia is a country hurt by the allocation draw, Norway is one that has benefitted – close neighbours like Sweden and Iceland are voting here.
As a result, Norway is predicted not only to score high in the Nordics, but earn solid points from many countries in this semi-final. Kyle’s performance also appears to be going down well with younger, female fans – at least based on the responses to me in the Audience Poll. Norway placed seventh there with 110 votes, but this appears a solid bet to qualify.
Ziferblat rehearsing Bird of Pray for Ukraine at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Sarah Louise Bennett/ EBU
3rd Place – 🇺🇦 Ukraine: Ziferblat – “Bird of Pray”
Entering the top 3, this prediction may appear shocking to many who saw last night’s Audience Poll. That’s because while Ukraine is predicted to come third by The Model tonight with 116 points, the Audience Poll has Ziferblat’s “Bird of Pray” in 13th place. It got just 23 votes from people leaving the arena, who appeared to prefer other entries to this one.
However, Ukraine’s strong positioning here is based on one key factor – diaspora. While the circumstances leading to it aren’t worth repeating, the Ukrainian diaspora is exceptionally strong throughout many countries in Europe. And, with many wanting to show support to the country, The Model is predicting that kind of vote could still lead to high points.
Red Sebastian rehearsing Strobe Lights for Belgium at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Alma Bengtsson/ EBU
2nd Place – 🇧🇪 Belgium: Red Sebastian – “Strobe Lights”
In the runner-up spot, there’s another surprise. Despite being as low as ninth in the qualification odds in this semi-final, The Model predicts Belgium to come in second in tonight’s show with 120 points. “Strobe Lights” stunned many in the Eurovision press room yesterday during rehearsals, combining impressive camerawork with a huge lead vocal from Red Sebastian.
That performance appears to have made many bookmakers and bettors back Belgium. Their odds have shortened considerably both to qualify and to win the contest outright, and a Top 10 place in the Grand Final is beginning to look likely. Although they only came sixth in the Audience Poll with 111 votes, though, I know one mattered more – Red Sebastian’s mother voted for her son’s entry.
KAJ rehearsing Bara Bada Bastu for Sweden at St. Jakobshalle | Image Source: Sarah Louise Bennett/ EBU
WINNER – 🇸🇪 Sweden: KAJ – “Bara Bada Bastu”
Finally, then, the winner of this semi-final is predicted to be Sweden. KAJ have been leading the Eurovision odds for weeks, so this projection is not at all unsurprising. It’s the scale of it, though, which draws a sharp breath – 184 points is a simply huge score. It means that KAJ are projected to score more than 10 points on average from every country voting.
The scale of this victory is backed up by last night’s Audience Poll, where Sweden romped ahead with 346 votes – 23.1% of all responses. KAJ’s entry is not only getting a lot of love with audiences in the arena, but it’s also predicted to have jury appeal, too. At the moment, it appears KAJ are not only shoe-ins to win tonight, but that it will be hard to deny them on Saturday.
Now, though, it’s time to see whether The Model is right. Tomorrow, after the first semi-final of Eurovision 2025, we’ll see whether it’s gotten all ten qualifiers right or if there is a surprise the system hasn’t seen coming. And, on Thursday, The Model will make its final prediction for Semi-Final Two, as well. Make sure to follow Eurovoix across social media to find out when the predictions come out!
Tags: eurovision 2025 Eurovoix Headline The Model
