Analysis: Ukraine-Russia talks are a baby step towards peace – but ‘gaping chasm’ remains

Russia and Ukraine are still “miles apart” on the fundamental issues of the war following their first direct talks in three years, Moscow correspondent Ivor Bennett says.

Discussions in Istanbul today lasted just two hours, with Ukraine’s delegation led by defence minister Rustem Umerov and Russia’s team led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky.

Bennett says there was “clearly no love lost” between the two sides, as they sat on opposite sides of the table, “underlining the animosity”.

“But the fact that these talks have taken place is certainly significant,” says Bennett.

“It’s the first time they’ve met face to face, sat down in the same room, in more than three years. So that is a step in the right direction towards a peace deal.

“But this is a baby step. It’s more of a shuffle, not one giant leap along that path to peace. Because the only substantive thing to come from this meeting in Istanbul is this prisoner swap. 

“That is a confidence-building measure. I think that’s how Ukraine would put it. But it’s nothing like what Ukraine wanted from this, which was a 30-day ceasefire.”

Reminder of talks outcome

As a reminder, the Russian delegation, led by presidential aide Medinsky, reported the following results of today’s talks:

A large-scale prisoner swap is to happen in the “coming days” of 1,000 prisoners each;An agreement that each side will present “its vision of a possible future ceasefire”;The Ukrainian side requested direct talks between Putin and Zelenskyy, which the Russian side “noted”, Medinsky said.

The Ukrainian team, led by Umerov, reported similar results, saying the date for the prisoner swap has been set but not made public.

Europe will ‘accuse Russia of stalling’

Bennett says there is still a “gaping chasm” between Russia and Ukraine on the fundamentals of territory, security guarantees, and a 30-day ceasefire.

“Okay, they have agreed to put forward their vision for a ceasefire,” Bennett says.” But I’m sure Ukraine and its European allies would argue – why on earth do you actually need a meeting to agree to put forward that vision? 

“I think they would once again accuse Russia of stalling here with yet more delay tactics.”