The rapid growth in property prices and its impact on imputed rents was one of the hot topics at the meeting. Zamrazilova holds the view that the high savings rate in recent years represents deferred demand for property rather than consumption, with savings being put to work right now. For her, this is a reason to hold rates slightly higher. At the same time, some members pointed out that it was not the role of central banks to solve the structural and institutional problems of the property market. That said, a significant proportion of new loans is related to real estate, so it is necessary to take the real estate market into account. The CNB policies currently have a rather neutral effect on the property market, while factors outside the CNB’s remit continue to drive high housing costs.
The impact of the current geopolitical tensions and trade wars was deemed very hard to quantify, as various counter-directional effects are in place, including uncertainty about their timing. A possible weakening of global demand would have an anti-inflationary effect, while some inflationary impact could also occur from restricted supply. Given the high uncertainty about the developments and effects in this area, its weighting was rather discounted in the decision. The CNB presented two scenarios linked to the reshuffling of the global trade landscape: i) the anti-inflationary downturn in global demand and ii) the pro-inflationary disruptions to global value chains. The muted response of Czech inflation, compared to the pronounced price increases abroad, represents a notable setback, despite the generally proportional adjustments in foreign and domestic policy rates. Moreover, the outcome contrasts with similar dynamics observed during the pandemic, where inflationary reactions played out differently in several key aspects.