May 19, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: United Kingdom – Palm Kernel And Babassu Oil – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.
The article discusses the expected increase in consumption of palm kernel oil in the UK, with a forecasted CAGR of +0.5% for market volume and +2.0% for market value from 2024 to 2035. By the end of 2035, the market volume is projected to reach 20K tons and the market value to reach $26M in nominal prices.
Market Forecast
Driven by rising demand for palm kernel oil in the UK, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.5% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 20K tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $26M (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
ConsumptionUnited Kingdom’s Consumption of Palm Kernel Oil
In 2024, after two years of decline, there was significant growth in consumption of palm kernel and babassu oil, when its volume increased by 13% to 19K tons. Overall, consumption, however, showed a pronounced downturn. Palm kernel oil consumption peaked at 34K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.
The value of the palm kernel oil market in the UK surged to $21M in 2024, growing by 26% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, recorded a perceptible contraction. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $40M. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the market remained at a lower figure.
ImportsUnited Kingdom’s Imports of Palm Kernel Oil
In 2024, supplies from abroad of palm kernel and babassu oil increased by 12% to 19K tons for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year declining trend. Overall, imports, however, recorded a noticeable downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when imports increased by 25%. Imports peaked at 34K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, palm kernel oil imports stood at $28M in 2024. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a slight downturn. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 43% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure at $46M in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.
Imports By Country
The Netherlands (6.9K tons), Papua New Guinea (4.1K tons) and Ireland (2.9K tons) were the main suppliers of palm kernel oil imports to the UK, together accounting for 74% of total imports. Indonesia, Malaysia, Spain, Belgium and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Spain (with a CAGR of +322.6%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the Netherlands ($13M) constituted the largest supplier of palm kernel and babassu oil to the UK, comprising 46% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Papua New Guinea ($4.8M), with a 17% share of total imports. It was followed by Indonesia, with a 14% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value from the Netherlands totaled +15.6%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Papua New Guinea (+2.4% per year) and Indonesia (+1.0% per year).
Imports By Type
In 2024, vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified (14K tons) constituted the largest type of palm kernel and babassu oil supplied to the UK, accounting for a 73% share of total imports. Moreover, vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified (5K tons), threefold.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified imports totaled +6.1%.
In value terms, vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified ($22M) constituted the largest type of palm kernel and babassu oil supplied to the UK, comprising 79% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified ($6M), with a 21% share of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified imports amounted to +8.0%.
Import Prices By Type
In 2024, the average palm kernel oil import price amounted to $1,519 per ton, dropping by -2.4% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a tangible increase from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, palm kernel oil import price decreased by -26.9% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 an increase of 46% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $2,077 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the average import prices remained at a lower figure.
Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplied products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified ($1,633 per ton), while the price for vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified amounted to $1,207 per ton.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified (+2.2%).
Import Prices By Country
In 2024, the average palm kernel oil import price amounted to $1,519 per ton, reducing by -2.4% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a notable expansion from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, palm kernel oil import price decreased by -26.9% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the average import price increased by 46%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $2,077 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the average import prices failed to regain momentum.
Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Belgium ($2,916 per ton), while the price for Ireland ($256 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Honduras (+9.1%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.
ExportsUnited Kingdom’s Exports of Palm Kernel Oil
In 2024, the amount of palm kernel and babassu oil exported from the UK declined dramatically to 22 tons, shrinking by -88.5% compared with the year before. Overall, exports saw a deep downturn. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when exports increased by 1,218% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 1.4K tons. From 2017 to 2024, the growth of the exports failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, palm kernel oil exports fell notably to $99K in 2024. Over the period under review, exports showed a abrupt decline. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 with an increase of 551%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $2.5M. From 2017 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.
Exports By Country
France (7.7 tons), Denmark (6.1 tons) and Italy (1.9 tons) were the main destinations of palm kernel oil exports from the UK, together comprising 71% of total exports. Iraq, Ireland, Malaysia, Germany, India and the Netherlands lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +1,177.3%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, France ($33K) emerged as the key foreign market for palm kernel and babassu oil exports from the UK, comprising 34% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by India ($9.6K), with a 9.8% share of total exports. It was followed by Denmark, with an 8.4% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value to France amounted to -6.4%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: India (+635.6% per year) and Denmark (+18.6% per year).
Exports By Type
Vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified (21 tons) was the largest type of palm kernel and babassu oil exported from the UK, accounting for a 96% share of total exports. Moreover, vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified exceeded the volume of the second product type, vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified (799 kg), more than tenfold.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the volume of vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified exports stood at -17.7%.
In value terms, vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified ($97K) remains the largest type of palm kernel and babassu oil exported from the UK, comprising 98% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified ($2K), with a 2% share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified exports stood at -14.8%.
Export Prices By Type
The average palm kernel oil export price stood at $4,453 per ton in 2024, growing by 49% against the previous year. Overall, the export price saw a tangible expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when the average export price increased by 204% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $11,120 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the average export prices failed to regain momentum.
Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified ($4,527 per ton), while the average price for exports of vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified amounted to $2,474 per ton.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for the following types: vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified (+3.5%).
Export Prices By Country
The average palm kernel oil export price stood at $4,453 per ton in 2024, rising by 49% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price enjoyed tangible growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 an increase of 204% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $11,120 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the average export prices failed to regain momentum.
There were significant differences in the average prices for the major external markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was India ($17,146 per ton), while the average price for exports to Denmark ($1,366 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Sweden (+31.2%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.