The result leaves Prime Minister Luís Montenegro facing a fragmented legislature, as the far-right Chega party matched the Socialist Party (PS) for second place in a vote that reflects growing political volatility and shifting voter sentiment.
With all votes counted, AD secured 32% of the vote, translating into 89 seats in the 230-seat Assembly. This result improves marginally on the 80 seats won by the coalition 14 months earlier, but remains significantly short of the 116 seats needed to govern outright. Chega and the Socialists each secured 58 seats, marking a notable moment in Portuguese politics: the PS risks being pushed out of the top two for the first time in nearly four decades, pending the tally of overseas votes.
Pedro Nuno Santos’ Socialists lost 20 seats, a result widely interpreted as punishment by voters who viewed the snap election as unnecessary. The election was triggered after Montenegro’s minority government failed a confidence vote in March, prompted by opposition scrutiny over his previous involvement in a data consultancy firm, Spinumviva, which has contracts with the state. Montenegro has denied any conflict of interest.
Turnout was reported at 64%, an increase from 59% in the 2024 election, despite concerns over voter fatigue—this being Portugal’s third general election in three years.
Chega’s performance underscores its rapid ascent in Portuguese politics. From a single parliamentary seat in 2019 to 58 in 2025, the party now holds a quarter of the legislature. Its leader, André Ventura, described the result as a major disruption to Portugal’s post-revolution political order. “The system has been shaken,” said Chega MP Pedro Pinto, adding that the party now represents a credible governing alternative.
Despite Chega’s gains, Montenegro reiterated that he would not form a coalition or governing agreement with the party. He cited Chega’s political instability, shifting positions, and unsuitability for office. The Liberal Initiative, a smaller party that could contribute seven seats to a centre-right bloc, has also categorically refused to cooperate with Chega, narrowing Montenegro’s options further.
Montenegro may therefore have to rely on tacit or indirect support from the Socialists to form a workable minority government. In 2024, Santos had allowed the AD to pass key legislation by abstaining from critical votes, including on the national budget. However, relations between the two main parties have since deteriorated.
Santos announced his resignation as PS leader shortly after the results were confirmed, stating that he would not be a candidate in the forthcoming leadership contest. “I do not want to be a hindrance to the party in the choices it must make,” he said, while expressing his personal opposition to any support for an AD-led government.
The frontrunner to succeed Santos is José Luís Carneiro, a former Interior Minister. However, the Socialist Party must hold an extraordinary congress to confirm its new leader, potentially delaying negotiations over government formation.
Portugal’s constitution places no fixed deadline on the appointment of a new government, nor does it stipulate automatic dissolution of parliament if a government cannot be formed. It does, however, prohibit fresh snap elections within six months of a vote or during the final six months of a presidential term. Given that President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s term ends in March 2026, the earliest a new election could be called would be in late spring 2026.
The electoral campaign was dominated by concerns over housing, public services, and rising costs of living. Immigration also featured prominently, with the AD government recently announcing the planned expulsion of 18,000 irregular migrants. The move was criticised by political opponents as an attempt to appeal to Chega voters.
Chega, while benefitting from popular discontent, has also faced scandals. Recent months saw several of its MPs embroiled in controversies, including allegations of theft, drink-driving, and sexual misconduct. Ventura himself was hospitalised during the final days of the campaign, but returned for a closing rally.
The vote passed without major incident, although one case of political violence was reported. In Lisbon, PS candidate Miguel Coelho was allegedly assaulted by an elector who encouraged votes for Chega. Police are investigating.
Portugal now faces a protracted period of political uncertainty, with coalition-building prospects constrained and no clear path to a stable majority. The outcome reflects a broader trend of fragmentation in European politics, with traditional parties losing ground and emergent forces gaining traction in an unsettled electorate.
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