Ukraine and the EU will revert to pre-war tariff quotas on agricultural exports after 5 June, when the current duty-free trade regime expires, following EU member states approval on Thursday.

EU agriculture spokesperson Balazs Ujvari confirmed that a majority of EU countries had endorsed the “transitional measures” proposed by the Commission during a comitology meeting this morning.

Ujvari clarified that the move does not extend the wartime Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs), which have allowed Ukraine to export agricultural goods tariff-free since 2022, but rather serves as a temporary stopgap while talks on a long-term framework continue.

As previously reported by Euractiv, the Commission plans to return to the trade framework outlined in the 2017 Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) agreement. The change will take effect from 6 June.

Because the quotas are being reintroduced mid-year, they will be adjusted proportionally – covering 7/12ths of the annual volumes to reflect the June–December period.

“As a responsible institution, we also have prepared for transitional measures,” said the Commission spokesperson.

But for Ukraine, the duty-free trade regime has been an economic lifeline – and the return to quotas falls short of the wartime trade benefits.

Amid growing concern over the looming expiry of trade privileges, a Ukrainian parliamentary committee convened its first-ever session outside the country this week, meeting in Brussels to underscore the urgency of the situation.

Dmytro Natalukha, chair of the Ukrainian Parliament’s economic affairs committee, told Euractiv on Thursday that ending the ATMs could cost the country over €3 billion – equivalent to around 70% of Ukraine’s projected total economic growth for 2025.

However, the Commission has cast doubt on those figures. Leon Delvaux, a senior official at DG TRADE, said last week that the €3 billion estimate was inflated, arguing the real value of the ATMs is closer to €1.5 billion.

Natalukha said that while the Commission promised last year to replace the ATMs with a long-term framework, no such structure has materialised.

“Unfortunately, this promise has not been honoured – and it looks like the wheels aren’t even in motion,” he said, citing the absence of formal negotiations.

Sensitive goods and politics
The Ukrainian MP warned that delays in negotiations could severely hurt Ukraine’s already fragile economy. The country’s two main economic pillars – metallurgy and agriculture  – are both under strain, with heavy fighting continuing around the Pokrovsk coal mine, crucial for the country’s steel making industry.

“Basically, the termination of trade benefits without an alternative is undercutting our second economic pillar,” he said.

Politics likely lie at the heart of the Commission’s reluctance to advance the negotiations. On Tuesday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in Parliament that he had lobbied to abandon the trade benefits after taking office last year.

Warsaw is now preparing for a second round of elections which will take place on 1 June, in which the right-wing EPP and the nationalist PiS once again face off.

Natalukha acknowledged that certain agricultural goods have raised concerns in EU countries like Poland, but said Kyiv is open to respecting these sensitivities in a future agreement.

“We understand the problem. So let’s clearly define which goods are sensitive and then implement a predictable trade liberalisation plan,” he added.

(adm, aw)