Tehran, Iran
CNN
—
Iran and the United States began a fifth round of high-stakes nuclear talks in Rome on Friday amid growing skepticism in Tehran about the chances of a deal as Washington hardens its position.
Two Iranian sources have told CNN the talks seem unlikely to lead to an agreement, with the US insisting that Tehran dismantles its uranium enrichment program – a demand Iranian officials say would cause the nuclear negotiations to collapse.
The sources said Iran’s participation in the Rome talks is solely to gauge Washington’s latest stance rather than pursue a potential breakthrough.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated Tehran’s red lines before he departed for Rome on Friday.
“Figuring out the path to a deal is not rocket science,” he posted on X before his flight. “Zero nuclear weapons = we DO have a deal. Zero enrichment = we do NOT have a deal.”
The Trump administration has demanded Iran stop all uranium enrichment activity, which lead US negotiator Steve Witkoff says “enables weaponization.” Uranium, a key nuclear fuel, can be used to build a bomb if enriched to high levels. Iran maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful and says it is willing to commit not to enrich uranium to weapons-grade as part of an agreement.
Araghci was expected to meet Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi ahead of talks to convey “strong objections and criticism of the current policy of the US delegation towards Iran,” state-run IRNA news agency said. Oman is mediating the negotiations.
Speaking Thursday, Araghchi said Iran was open to enhanced monitoring by international inspectors but would not relinquish its right to pursue nuclear energy, including uranium enrichment. Washington is offering to wind back crippling economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for de-nuclearization.
The US had previously sent mixed signals about whether Iran would be allowed to enrich uranium, but in recent weeks it has hardened its stance, insisting that no enrichment will be permitted.
That shift has prompted officials in Tehran to question Washington’s commitment to a deal, as Iran has repeatedly said enrichment is a red line in negotiations.
The two Iranian sources told CNN that Tehran harbors mounting doubts about the US’ sincerity in talks.
“The media statements and negotiating behavior of the United States has widely disappointed policy-making circles in Tehran,” the sources said in a joint message. “From the perspective of decision-makers in Tehran, when the US knows that accepting zero enrichment in Iran is impossible and yet insists on it, it is a sign that the US is fundamentally not seeking an agreement and is using the negotiations as a tool to intensify pressure.”
Initially, the sources noted, some Iranian officials believed Washington might seek a “win-win” compromise. However, a consensus has now emerged that the Trump administration is steering discussions toward a deadlock.
The sources said that although neither the US nor Iran wants to leave the negotiating table, the position of the US is making the talks unproductive and formal meetings are unlikely to continue much longer.
They said that Tehran no longer takes seriously US efforts to distance itself from Israel’s hardline stance on Iran, and it sees proposals made by the American side as following the agenda of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has insisted that no enrichment be allowed in Iran.
On Friday, Iranian delegates in Rome aim to probe whether the US has revised its approach. The sources suggested that Tehran will likely take a tougher stance unless the US offers tangible concessions.
Washington has kept up the pressure on Iran with fresh sanctions and threats of war even as diplomatic talks continue.
On Wednesday, the US State Department announced new measures, identifying Iran’s construction sector as being “controlled directly or indirectly” by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and 10 strategic materials that it said Iran is using in connection with its nuclear, military or ballistic missile programs.
“With these determinations, the United States has broader sanctions authorities to prevent Iran from acquiring strategic materials for its construction sector under IRGC control and its proliferation programs,” State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said.
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson criticized US Secretary of State Marco Rubio for the move, calling it “as outrageous as it is unlawful and inhuman.”
“The US’s consecutive rounds of sanctions only reinforce our people’s deeply held belief that the American decision makers are set to make every malign effort to hinder Iran’s development & progress. These sanctions, announced on the eve of the fifth round of Iran-US indirect talks, further put to question the American willingness & seriousness for diplomacy,” Baqaei wrote on X.
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group in Brussels, said there is a misguided perception in Washington that a weakened Iran is more likely to compromise.
“The weaker Iran is, the more reluctant it will be to make major concessions,” he said, adding that it is unlikely that Tehran will agree to a deal that is based solely on US terms.
“That’s a complete misreading of Iranian psychology,” Vaez said. For Iran, capitulation is seen as a worse than an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities, he added.
“Iran would be reluctant to make concessions from a position of weakness, because if it does so, then it will put itself on a slippery slope that could result in regime collapse,” Vaez said.
Multiple American officials told CNN this week that the US has obtained new intelligence suggesting that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities even as the Trump administration pursues a diplomatic deal with Tehran.
But threats of war will only lead to Iran “doubling down on its current position,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at London’s Chatham House think tank, told CNN. “The best way to invigorate the talks would be through backchannelling and quiet discussions between both sides.”
In an interview with CNN’s Jim Sciutto on Thursday, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee signaled potential American support for Israel’s nuclear plans under the right conditions.
“I can’t imagine the US would object to a sovereign nation defending itself against what they perceive as a legitimate threat to their very lives,” Huckabee said.
He acknowledged that the US is aware Israel is making preparations for potential military action.
“We certainly are aware of what the Israelis are at least preparing for. But it’s not that they have made a firm decision. I think they recognize they face an existential threat from Iran.”
Experts say an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would likely spell the end of its negotiations with the US, and could even prompt Tehran to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which promotes nuclear disarmament.
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, DC, said the Trump administration has “unnecessarily walked themselves into a dead-end by insisting on zero enrichment,” fueling the idea that Israeli strikes will follow if Iran doesn’t back down. Iran, he added, is probably not taking those threats seriously.
But if they do materialize in the midst of nuclear talks with the US, he said, Tehran is likely to respond with massive retaliation. “They won’t play the patience game any longer,” Parsi said.
“If the Israelis were to do anything, it has to be clearly understood that it is not about destroying the program at this point, because they don’t have that capability.” Parsi added. “It is only about destroying diplomacy.”