Kazakhstan Expects to Top Its Oil Output Plan in Defiance of OPEC+

Kazakhstan is likely to top its oil production plan this year, due to the expansion of the Chevron-led Tengiz field, Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov said on Friday, in yet another snub at OPEC+ quotas.

Earlier this year, Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said that the country plans to produce a total of 96.2 million tons of crude oil and condensate in 2025, or about 2 million barrels per day (bpd), which would be 9.7% higher compared to 2024.

Now Kazakhstan will likely top the production plans for the year, Minister Akkenzhenov was quoted as saying by Russian news agency TASS.

Earlier this year, the start-up of oil production at an expansion project at Tengiz, the largest oilfield in Kazakhstan operated by a Chevron-led consortium, added 260,000 bpd to output.

Due to the increased production at the giant Tengiz field, “we will probably finish the year higher” than the planned production level, Akkenzhenov was quoted as saying.

Kazakhstan’s overproduction has been a major headache for OPEC+ producers, many of which have been sticking to their quotas, especially the leader, Saudi Arabia.

Kazakhstan, a non-OPEC producer part of the OPEC+ pact, is seeing its oil production rise by 2% in May.

Under the OPEC+ agreement, Kazakhstan’s crude oil production quota is below 1.5 million bpd. The deal doesn’t cover condensate production and has no limits on it.

Kazakhstan has been consistently overproducing above its OPEC+ limit and is one of the biggest overproducers alongside Iraq and Russia.

Kazakhstan has promised to “compensate” by shaving 1.3 million barrels from cumulative output by 2026. But with Western oil majors firmly in control of Kazakhstan’s biggest fields, that promise is more theoretical than enforceable.

Earlier this month, Chevron’s chief executive, Mike Wirth, told analysts at the supermajor’s Q1 earnings call that “On OPEC plus in Kazakhstan, you know, really were not discussions of that. We don’t engage in discussions about OPEC or OPEC plus.”  

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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