Europe’s luck runs out as Trump trains his guns on Brussels

5 comments

1. ***From The Telegraph:***

   For a moment, it looked like the EU might be having a good trade war.

   Germany’s economy grew by 0.4pc in the first three months of the year, twice the 0.2pc initially estimated, as American importers desperately shipped as much as they could before Donald Trump’s initial wave of tariffs came into force. It was the strongest growth in two and a half years.

   But Europe’s luck may have already run out: Mr Trump has thrown a wobbler, accusing Brussels – seemingly with little self-awareness – of being “[very difficult to deal with](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/23/trump-tariffs-latest-us-eu-50-per-cent-trade-war-markets/)”.

   “Our discussions with them are going nowhere! Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50pc tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1 2025,” the US president posted on his Truth Social website.

   Mr Trump has long resented the EU, repeatedly claiming it was [formed to “screw” the US](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/02/26/trump-has-point-eu-does-screw-america/). But until now his focus has been on China.

   It is no coincidence that he is now training his guns on Brussels after [reaching a truce](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/11/trump-hails-total-reset-us-china-trade-talks/) in his battle with Beijing.

   **Read more:** [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/23/trump-threatens-cripple-eu-focus-shifts-from-china/](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/23/trump-threatens-cripple-eu-focus-shifts-from-china/)

2. The EU has now more reasons to pivet away from USA in the long run. She is more likely to march on a independent path. Eu as a organization is going to become more powerful and have more sway.

   Trump antics are not going to play a big influence here, since Trump kowtowed to Bejing. Brusells is going to call it a bluff and see a long term strategy.

   The world we know as being dominated by single state is ending, the age of multipolarity begins.

3. >Brussels has plans to retaliate, particularly by focusing on iconic American goods made in politically important states

   I wonder if the same strategy will be used against the EU. It sounds like Trump is threatening a broad tariff, but if a trade war develops, the EU might be even more susceptible to politically targeted pressure. Look at the trouble the EU has with Hungary; it would be difficult to keep all the ducks in a row against the US.

4. For a realpolitk view Europe is between a rock and a hard place. Trumps assertion that they weren’t negotiating in good faith is plasuable given how traditionally ruthless the eu has been with negotiations. But moving beyond that, the EUs situation is not good.

   They have an enemy at the gates, tiny army’s and no way to quickly surger production. If they wanted to go it alone they still have a ten year window of vulnerability. That also aligns with the peak of Russian power.

   Economicly a majority of EU gdp is from exports and the biggest export market is from America. On top of that Europe can’t protect the sea lanes. If trump wanted to be really nasty he would put tolls on all ships leaving Europe. (Like the Portuguese did for Indian ocean trade)

   The eu political will isn’t there for a unified response either. Hungry vetoed the last retaliation while one of Polands presidential candidates is promising to negotiate a deal for Poland alone.

   Europe bet that America would stick around forever after the end of the cold war and would continue to accept the cold war deal of “economic subsidies to Europe in exchange for helping protect America” Europe hasn’t paid its end of the deal in over 20 years (baring some exceptions like britian and poland) so America now has no reason to stay. Europe had leverage in the cold war, it doesn’t have it now. I don’t think the EU realizes that.

5. Trump is Napoleon and the EU is the Holy Roman Empire.

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