NITI

NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam and Vice Chairperson Suman Bery during a press briefing on NITI Council meeting, in New Delhi, Saturday, May 24, 2025. (PTI Photo/Kamal Singh)

India has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, according to NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam, while asserting that if things go “as planned” in the next 2-3 years, India will be the third economy.
“We are a $4 trillion economy, as I speak,” Subrahmanyam said on Saturday, citing the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). “Only the US, China and Germany are ahead of us.”

“It is only the US, China and Germany which are larger than India, and if we stick to what is being planned and what is being thought through, in 2.5-3 years, we would become the third largest economy,” Subrahmanyam added.

Until 2024, India held the fifth spot in the global economy rankings. The IMF’s April World Economic Outlook report projected India’s gross domestic product (GDP) at $4.19 trillion in 2025, slightly ahead of Japan’s.

According to IMF data, India’s per capita income has more than doubled in the past decade, rising from $1,438 in 2013-14 to $2,880 in 2025.

The IMF expects India’s economy to grow at 6.2% in 2025-26, slightly below its previous forecast of 6.5%, citing global uncertainties and rising trade tensions. Despite the revision, India remains among the fastest-growing major economies, with growth supported by strong private consumption, particularly in rural areas.

In contrast, the global economy is projected to grow at just 2.8% in 2025 and 3% in 2026.

A new NITI Aayog strategy document titled “Viksit Bharat @ 2047″ outlines India’s long-term development vision. It notes that India has gone from being labelled part of the “fragile five” economies a decade ago to becoming one of the top five globally. The paper aims for a $30 trillion economy by then, with per capita income on par with current high-income nations.

To reach that target, the document identifies six key building blocks: macro-economic goals and strategy; empowered citizens; a thriving and sustainable economy; technology and innovation leadership; global leadership; and enabling governance, security, and justice systems.