India is Losing South Asia to China

11 comments

1. SS: Joshua Kurlantzick, writing for the Council on Foreign Relations, argues that India is rapidly losing strategic influence across South Asia to China, despite its historical dominance in the region. While India once held significant sway over countries like Bhutan, Nepal, and Bangladesh, often dictating policy and forging strong security and economic ties, recent political shifts have seen pro-India leaders ousted in favor of governments turning to Beijing. In Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina’s fall amid protests gave rise to an interim administration that has embraced Chinese investment while fostering anti-India sentiment. Similar transitions in the Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Nepal have further eroded India’s clout, with new leaders openly courting China, signing defense pacts, and endorsing Beijing’s economic model and geopolitical ambitions. Though India remains a major global power, its diminishing regional hold forces it to divert more resources toward stabilizing its immediate neighborhood, weakening its broader strategic reach.

2. Both India and China are hated by almost all of their own neighbors, and are good friends with each other’s neighbors. This isn’t news.

3. I wonder if they (India) will begin to look more toward states like Thailand, which they’ve been to foster a pretty decent relationship. There is a not so insignificant Thai-Indian class that wields influence in the country. Or even Malaysia, where there are also a high number of influential Malaysians of Indian descent.

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5. Decades of Gandhian philosophy will do that to a nation

6. I guess only Bangladesh unrest cannot be pointed in that direction. Rest of the south Asian countries are maintaining good relations with India though. Ups and downs comes with Nepal and Srilanka but that’s more under control and India doesn’t mind small moves unless it really goes out of control and angers India then India does what it does. Bangladesh will soon realise the same that it is not feasible for them to have bad relations with India specially when the care taker guys go..

7. To be fair India’s economic inferiority in comparison to China is nothing new. This article is saying as much as water is wet.

8. India never had them to lose. India’s foreign policy has been bad since its independence. 

9. I wasn’t aware having sugar baby was same as having gf/wife. China throws money, because they want bases in the Indian sub-continent and the goal is not just India. China’s supply and trade has a choke point in Malaka straight. It wants to gain favorable nations/bases around it to counter US when invasion of Taiwan happens.

   Economically Belt and Road hasn’t been successful nor will it be but it has served its main purpose of military objective. It has given China access to geographically crucial ports.

10. A very meh article:

    That was the case until now. The US and the west had massively invested in China for their manufacturing base from the 1980s/90s until a few years ago.

    But with the West and the US clearly seeing China as a threat financially, militarily will seek to reduce their exposure to China and move it elsewhere such as India. Chinese companies have big investments in Thailand and Vietnam so American companies will be wary of dealing with Chinese companies that may be heavily influenced by the CCP.

    For all the rhetoric around “losing” South Asia, a lot of the nations that invested in the BRI (Nepal, Sri Lanka and a few in Africa) are all having massive buyers regret. Cases in point- the Hambantota port, Pokhara airport etc.

    China continues to throw money at Pakistan to keep India busy on its western front. But India’s growing influence with the west and the far east nations via the Quadrilateral Dialogue, U2I2, IMEC, and the G4 (permanent seat for UNSC) is all indicative of its trust that nations have in them.

    Indian economy has grown rapidly over the last 5 years averaging 6-7%, better than China which is still reeling from the zero Covid policy, real estate bubble and demographic crisis.

    Let’s see where things are in 20-25 years. I can see India closing the gap against the Chinese GDP from a 4.5:1 ratio (now) to closer to 2-2.5:1 in another 10-12 years.

11. Turns out trying to work against everyone means you will just get outcast.

    Bypass Europe sanction on Russia to sell oil?
    Vote against BRICS by Russia and China?
    Make Trump angry by attacking his ego?
    Support Israel against Arabs?

    Congrats, now every big player hates India.

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