US Travel from Europe Fizzles Out as Germany, France, UK, Denmark, Iceland, and Luxembourg Drive Over Eleven Percent Drop in New Arrivals Amid Shift to Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and the Caribbean

Thursday, May 29, 2025

European travel to the US is rapidly fizzling out, with countries like Germany, France, the UK, Denmark, Iceland, and Luxembourg leading the retreat — not due to lack of interest in travel, but because more and more Europeans are choosing destinations like Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and the Caribbean instead. In March 2025, air arrivals from 22 European nations to the United States dropped sharply, contributing to an overall 11.6% decline in inbound travel compared to the same period last year. Once-reliable tourism flows are slowing, not because people aren’t traveling — but because, for now, America is no longer the preferred stop.

According to official arrival figures, the United States experienced a striking 11.6% drop in international entries during March, compared to the same month last year. And while some fluctuation is normal, what’s notable this time is who’s staying away — and why.

A Growing Silence from Europe

Europe has long been one of the most dependable sources of inbound travel to the U.S., both in volume and spending. But this spring, that connection began to fray. Out of 33 European countries tracked for air arrivals into the U.S., 22 recorded year-on-year declines. The reversal isn’t subtle — it’s a marked change that’s hitting major travel hubs and smaller gateways alike.

Germany, typically among the top European markets for the U.S., led the downturn with a 28.5% plunge in air arrivals. Luxembourg’s figures were even more alarming, showing a steep 44% collapse compared to March 2024. Iceland, another historically strong market, registered a 36.6% drop. Add to that Denmark (-34.5%), Hungary (-27.6%), and Ireland (-26.9%), and the pattern becomes undeniable.

Other major nations weren’t far behind. Spain slipped by 24.5%, Austria fell by 23.6%, and Portugal declined by 19.2%. Even France, usually one of the more resilient markets, posted a modest yet clear drop of 5.1%. The UK, often the largest European source of U.S. visitors, registered a 14.8% decline, suggesting that this isn’t a one-country story — it’s regional.

The Full Picture: Winners, Losers, and the Gap in Between

To better understand the extent of the decline, here’s a breakdown of how all 33 tracked countries performed:

Countries with increased arrivals

Slovenia: +42.0%Poland: +18.1%Russia: +13.6%Romania: +12.6%Other Eastern Europe: +10.8%Latvia: +4.3%Estonia: +3.4%Bulgaria: +2.1%Greece: +2.1%Netherlands: +2.0%Ukraine: +1.3%

Countries with decreased arrivals

Other Western Europe: -2.6%Italy: -4.4%France: -5.1%Lithuania: -7.0%Finland: -8.9%United Kingdom: -14.8%Czech Republic: -16.7%Sweden: -17.8%Slovakia: -18.2%Belgium: -18.3%Croatia: -18.9%Portugal: -19.2%Austria: -23.6%Spain: -24.5%Norway: -25.4%Switzerland: -26.4%Ireland: -26.9%Hungary: -27.6%Germany: -28.5%Denmark: -34.5%Iceland: -36.6%Luxembourg: -44.0%

Out of the 33 countries observed, only 11 posted positive growth. And even those gains, primarily from Eastern Europe, were modest in scale compared to the magnitude of losses elsewhere.

What’s Driving the Decline?

The reasons behind Europe’s growing indifference to U.S. travel are layered, but they all point to one conclusion: the United States is becoming a more difficult, expensive, or less desirable destination for many Europeans.

First, the strong U.S. dollar continues to weigh heavily on travelers from the eurozone and beyond. For many, especially younger or mid-income travelers, a trip to the U.S. now comes with a price tag that no longer feels worth it. Hotel rates in major American cities remain high, and fluctuating airfare prices only add to the burden.

Second, there’s a bureaucratic drag that’s deterring potential visitors. Lengthy visa appointment waits in some countries, inconsistent application outcomes, and stories of strict border control experiences are chipping away at confidence. While the ESTA visa waiver program remains available for many, last-minute trip planning has become riskier.

Then there’s the shift in airline focus. Carriers like Lufthansa, British Airways, Air France, and even KLM are gradually reducing seat capacity to U.S. destinations in favor of routes with rising demand. That includes flights into Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and the Caribbean — places seeing a spike in European interest due to better pricing, relaxed entry rules, and increasing cultural appeal.

Canada, Mexico, Brazil and the Caribbean Step In

The tourism dollars that once flowed toward the U.S. are not vanishing — they’re simply being redirected. In Canada, destinations like Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal have all reported higher levels of European tourism, bolstered by favorable exchange rates and easier logistics. For many Germans and Dutch travelers, visiting Canada is now cheaper and simpler than flying into the U.S.

Mexico is seeing a boom as well. European travelers are flocking to destinations like Tulum, Cancun, and Mexico City, not only for their affordability and weather, but for the growing number of direct flights and minimal red tape.

Brazil, with its renewed tourism campaigns and loosened travel restrictions, is drawing in a new crowd — especially from countries like Portugal and Spain. Meanwhile, Caribbean nations including the Dominican Republic, Barbados, Saint Lucia, and Jamaica are cashing in on their natural advantages: no visa hassles, relatively short flight times, and all-inclusive resort offerings tailored to European tastes.

The Consequences for the US Travel Industry

The impact of this European drawdown isn’t just theoretical — it’s already being felt on the ground in America. Cities that depend heavily on European tourism, particularly New York, Los Angeles, Miami, Chicago, and San Francisco, are reporting noticeable declines in hotel occupancy, tour bookings, and museum traffic.

Businesses in the luxury retail and dining sectors are among the hardest hit. European visitors typically stay longer and spend more per visit than most other traveler groups, especially those from Germany, the UK, and France. A sustained drop in their numbers could leave noticeable dents in local tourism revenues, especially in flagship destinations.

As tour operators and airport authorities brace for the peak summer season, many are hoping that April and May numbers show a rebound. But so far, early indicators suggest that the decline may stretch through the summer — especially as Europe itself enters its high holiday season.

A Crossroads for American Tourism

The situation raises an uncomfortable question for U.S. tourism leaders: has America lost its shine for Europe’s travelers? Or is this simply a temporary cooling?

If it’s the latter, then marketing can help. But if deeper systemic issues are causing the shift — cost, policy, reputation — then the response needs to go beyond digital campaigns.

Tourism experts warn that the U.S. will need to recalibrate how it engages with European markets. That could mean improving visa processing times, offering bundled travel deals through partnerships, or addressing the perception that the U.S. is a harder place to visit than it used to be.

Because while Europe’s outbound travelers clearly haven’t stopped — they’ve just changed course — it’s now up to the U.S. to decide whether to watch them drift away, or build a path to bring them back.