Late last week, we heard that the SDLP were putting a motion before the Assembly to call for a border poll. Looking at the order paper for Monday, I see the following motion tabled by the Leader of the Opposition : 

That this Assembly welcomes the positive step forward represented by the UK-EU deal of 19 May 2025; affirms that any arrangement which reduces friction for businesses is welcomed; supports further alignment between the UK and EU including via a comprehensive veterinary agreement; notes that Northern Ireland retains a competitive advantage as a result of its guaranteed dual market access and urges efforts to capitalise on this potential and increase Northern Ireland’s voice in EU institutions; believes that the UK’s vote to leave the European Union continues to be an act of historic, diplomatic and economic self-harm; further affirms that Northern Ireland’s best long-term future will be achieved by rejoining the European Union, an outcome which the people of Northern Ireland can only decisively effect via a vote for a new Ireland under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement; and calls for positive progress on a European future for Northern Ireland.

There are numerous aspects to this which I think are worth teasing out.

This motion appears less than a year after Matthew O’Toole appeared in the papers complaining – rightly – that the assembly is wasting two-thirds of its time on motions that have no effect rather than the serious business of government (https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/opposition-leader-matthew-otoole-says-over-two-thirds-of-assembly-time-spent-on-non-binding-motions-4861172). To be fair to Matthew, he has to work within the limits of what the opposition can actually do in the Assembly, and generally I think he’s been doing a pretty good job. But I don’t see how this motion fits his own criteria either of providing constructive opposition to the Executive, or of presenting an alternative policy position. 

Instead, what we’re witnessing is a cheap political stunt. For some time now, the SDLP have believed that Alliance can be challenged by tying re-entry to the European Union to the issue of Irish unity. The argument goes that if you’re not making the case for Irish unity, then you’re not serious about moving Northern Ireland back into the EU. This motion is an effort to get Alliance to declare its hand on the floor of the Assembly, and it has been very carefully worded in such a way that a vote against it can be spun as a vote against Northern Ireland re-entering the EU. The SDLP believe that they can then peel off Alliance’s votes. All very clever. 

But while the plan seems clever on the surface, the limitations soon become apparent. Rejoining the EU appeals to me, and I think the UK should waste no time in exploring it. But if we leave the UK and unite with Ireland, won’t we lose the “best of both worlds” benefits of the Windsor Framework that we all supported ? And given that we have secured many of the benefits of EU membership – free movement, a route into the customs union, ERASMUS participation, EHIC access and so on, is it really that essential that we make a big, risky change in order to secure it ?

The reason why we’re seeing stunts like this are to distract us from the ugly truth that nationalism does not want to face : nine years on from Brexit, and 27 years from the first sitting of the Assembly, it has squandered the own goals of its opponents and has done absolutely nothing to move the dial towards Irish unity in any appreciable way. What passes for a debate on Irish unity continues to be characterised by listlessness, tedium, buck-passing, and an assiduous avoidance of getting into real policy detail or dealing with the difficult questions. The debates are not serious because nationalism doesn’t want a serious debate; it wants to conjure up the illusion of one. Both major nationalist political parties have set up their own separate debating/advocacy forums because they can’t agree to work together (the SDLP’s “New Ireland Commission” manages six press releases per year, and none whatsoever in 2025; the SF-adjacent Ireland’s Future has had six statements in the past six months, the most recent of which was concerned with the Israel-Palestine conflict) and only this week has Colum Eastwood floated the idea of working with Sinn Fein, an idea which seems to have fallen on stony ground. 

Nationalists seem to keep demanding that Alliance adopt a position when it will barely adopt a position itself. Channelling the kind of vacuous strategies of the Brexiters, they have nothing to say about Irish unity other than that it should happen. They repeatedly argue that it’s someone else’s job to do the legwork. There is no attempt to use elections to achieve the mandate that will be required to move the issue along or push us towards a border poll. If there is an enthusiasm for unity, and increasing interest in it, then why is nationalism’s vote share shrinking ?

I don’t know how Alliance intend to respond to this, and the party has made life somewhat difficult for itself with the misguided association of some of its representatives with the phoney public debates and astroturf rallies that nationalist elements have organized to create the illusion of tangible progress. The motion was carefully worded to make it difficult for Alliance to vote for it – my guess is that the party will propose an amendment to defang the last few phrases, add be something about legitimate constitutional aspirations, a call for the UK to have closer ties to the EU, and so on. 

I am not against Irish unity. I believe it can work, and that there would be many advantages to it. But as long as nationalism continues engaging in astroturfing, distraction and electorally-oriented stunts rather than attempting to actually advance this objective, I cannot see how it will ever happen. The only way I will be persuaded otherwise is if nationalist parties start taking risks. They should use elections as a referendum on a border poll; challenge their own supporters with the ugly compromises that will be needed to make it all work; build an actual blueprint, a manifesto explaining what a new Ireland is and what mechanisms will be included to secure its success. If they can’t do this, can we please stop the silly games and start talking seriously about what we actually can do to make politics and governance in this place work better ?

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