Russia is bruised by Ukraine’s stunning attack, but won’t go nuclear, experts say

2 comments

1. Russia will be bruised and angry after Ukraine’s [humiliating attack on its nuclear bombers](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russian-nuclear-bombers-targeted-ukrainian-drone-attack-3724972?ico=in-line_link), experts told *The i Paper*, but remains unlikely to launch a nuclear attack.

   Moscow on Sunday suffered perhaps its most [damaging attack of the war](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/ukraines-audacious-drone-attack-unfolded-3725227?ico=in-line_link), a surprise, coordinate strike on several of its major air bases.

   Explosive-laden drones, which had been hidden in trucks and driven deep inside Russian territory, were released and struck 41 of Russia’s most crucial warplanes, Ukrainian officials said.

   At least 13 aircraft – some of which are capable of carrying nuclear weapons – were destroyed, with estimated damage totalling $7bn (£5.2bn), Kyiv said, calling it the most costly attack of the conflict.

   Retaliation appeared to come fast, as Moscow launched 472 drones at Ukraine, the highest nightly total of the war.

   Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, said the attack was “definitely a huge success by Ukraine.”

   The strikes “will make it harder for Russia to attack Ukrainian cities,” he said, because of the planes that were damaged.

   Dr Rod Thornton, an expert in Russian military at King’s College London, said the attack was “good for Ukrainian morale” and shows what Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian military are capable of.

   “There’s no doubt that it will piss Putin off”, Giles said, predicting that a heavy Russian counterattack would follow, likely targeting civilians.

   “They’ll also try to whip up fear of uncontrolled escalation and nuclear war again, and they’ll be leaning on the Americans trying to get them to rein in Ukraine and put pressure on Kyiv to stop carrying out successful attacks on Russia,” Giles said.

2. I don’t think any side ever seriously contemplated a reality where they’d have to launch a large scale nuclear strike only a few hundred kms from their own capital city.

   Armageddon was always something launched across continents.

   Tactical nukes don’t offer a big enough advantage over conventional weapons to justify the global political repercussions.

   There’s no scenario where using nuclear weapons advantages Russia. They might be able to take the world with them, but they can’t survive. Their only value is deterrence.

   If the West took out Moscow and St Petersburg, that’s basically the end of Russia as a functional nation state.

   Russia would need to take out dozens of major capitals in the US and Europe, multiple US bases across the globe, waves of bombers from multiple directions and a fleet of submarines they can’t track.

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