Turkish media reported that the PKK has around 3,500 members in northern Iraq. Fighters are expected to hand over their weapons to designated verification centres as Ankara works with Baghdad and Erbil to oversee the process. It is expected that this will also include a phased withdrawal of the PKK from its controlled areas in Iraq, such as Qandil, Gara, Sinjar, and Makmur, in a process coordinated by Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT) and Armed Forces. Media reports suggest that around 100 senior leaders may be sent to third countries, while around 2,000 members without active arrest warrants or egregious criminal records are expected to return to Turkey, where they will be subject to prosecution under counterterrorism laws.
The Kurdish conflict presents a complex case for the effective prosecution of DDR. An examination of other international conflict resolution and DDR processes highlight three potentially complicating factors in relation to the PKK, a designated terror organisation by Turkey, the US, UK and European Union.
First, the PKK has overseen a transnational conflict involving national and subnational dynamics in Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran. This distinguishes it from most other post-conflict DDR processes since the late 1980s, such as those in Mozambique (1992), Liberia (2003) Nepal (2006), and Colombia (2016), which came in the aftermath of mainly internal conflicts. The protracted civil war in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) stands out as having transnational dimensions with DDR processes explicitly dealing with regional fighters. The Sierra Leone-Liberia DDR efforts were also deeply intertwined regionally, given the cross-border flows of combatants. Conflicts with transnational dimensions are more complex and harder to resolve than purely internal or bilateral conflicts. However, the number of fighters to be demobilised is relatively small compared with other cases, rendering a successful outcome more likely. By comparison, around 70,000 fighters from different rebel factions were demobilised by the international community in Sierra Leone.
Second, the PKK’s origins and evolution as mainly an armed self-determination actor will influence the trajectory of its political transition. The organisation’s stated ideology has undergone significant pragmatic shifts – from its roots as a separatist movement in the late 1970s, to seeking autonomy in the 1990s and 2000s, and now, in its current phase, advocating for democratization within the state’s existing borders. Post-conflict-transitions involving actors with some form of self-determination-claims have shown the need to address wider demands for political reform beyond DDR to achieve stability and avoid recidivism. A Marxist-Leninist organisation at its inception, the PKK’s ranks are filled with fighters that undergo strict ideological training, practice martyrdom culture, and valorise a cult of personality around Ocalan. The concept of ‘devoted actors’ within armed-conflict- and rebel-group-studies suggest that fighters motivated by deeply held, non-negotiable commitments to the organisation’s cause may either resist demobilisation or struggle with reintegration processes unless there are targeted policies to ‘flip’ allegiance or facilitate a transition to non-violent forms of political contestation.