A week ago, the 39th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting was held via videoconference, chaired by Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-Saud, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy. According to a press release, the group pledged to “develop a mechanism to assess the maximum sustainable production capacity (MSC) of member countries that will be used as reference for 2027 production baselines”.

Whereas the long-term nature of the undertaking elicited little response from oil markets, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have noted that this is a highly significant development.

According to StanChart, establishing MSCs is likely to involve a series of data-related tasks over the next year, a task that’s unlikely to prove too difficult. Indeed, the ongoing unwinding of voluntary cuts suggests that the market has tended to overestimate sustainable capacity of some producers and has, therefore, frequently overestimated spare capacity. StanChart says setting MSC levels will improve the visibility and transparency of member countries, making it much harder for some OPEC+ members to obfuscate the degree of their non-compliance with their pledges by creating opaque data flows and vague (or shifting) definitions. This move will give more accurate production data thus reducing oil price volatility.

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The second key OPEC+ decision came on 31 May, with Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman agreeing to continue the accelerated unwinding of the 2023 production cuts by 411kb/d in July 2025. July’s accelerated clip was similar to that for the previous two months. Previous media reports had warned that the group might decide to unwind more than 411kb/d if the worst overproducers (Kazakhstan and Iraq) continued to defy calls to stick to their quotas. However, an Algerian government press release revealed that no such discussion took place. And now StanChart says that oil markets are likely to remain relatively well balanced for the remainder of the year–if OPEC+ sticks to its current trajectory. According to the analysts, current balances imply a global stock draw of 0.4 mb/d in the third quarter, which will be offset by a 0.4 mb/d inventory build in the final quarter of the year. Contributing to the balance will be the continuation of significant non-OPEC+ supply underperformance relative to consensus expectations in 2025, coupled with relatively robust demand growth which is expected to clock in at 1.17 mb/d in 2025 and 1.07 mb/d in 2026. Meanwhile, current low prices are likely to create some additional potential demand upside.

Looking at natural gas markets, the ongoing seasonal build in EU gas inventories accelerated sharply over the past week. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data, EU gas inventories clocked in at 56.79 billion cubic metres (bcm) on 1 June, good for a w/w build of 3.057 bcm. This marked the first time the w/w net injection exceeded 3 bcm since August 2022, with last week’s build nearly 50% above the previous week’s mark and 24% higher than the five-year average. The faster-than-average build has trimmed the y/y deficit to 24.44 bcm, lower than the 30.07 bcm deficit reached in mid-April. Natural gas prices have failed to sustain the momentum they built in the first three weeks of May: Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas for July delivery settled at EUR 35.015 per megawatt hour (MWh) on 2 June, good for a w/w fall of EUR 2.354/MWh. Europe’s gas prices have underperformed other energy prices in the year-to-date, by a significant margin.

The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly release was bullish, with the deficit in combined crude oil and oil product inventories relative to the five-year average widening by 7.04 mb w/w to 47.76 mb–the largest since December 2022. Crude oil inventories fell 2.8 mb w/w to 440.36 mb, with inventories now 30.22mb below the five-year average. Meanwhile, U.S. crude exports fell 794 kb/d w/w, tempered by a counter-seasonal 162 kb/d fall in crude oil refinery runs as well as a 262 kb/d increase in imports. However, demand indicators for the month of May were weak, with gasoline demand down 4.8% y/y, jet fuel demand down 0.4% and distillate demand down 1.4%.

The U.S. oil rig count declined by four w/w to a 42-month low of 461, marking a fifth consecutive weekly decline according to the latest Baker-Hughes survey. The Permian Basin rig count fell by one to a 42-month low of 278; the Midland Basin rig count fell by one to 98, Delaware Basin activity remained unchanged at 157 rigs, and other Permian drilling was unchanged at 23 rigs. In contrast, the U.S. gas rig count climbed by a single rig w/w to 99.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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