Russia is seeking to deploy up to 10,000 troops in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria and is doing all it can to install a pro-Kremlin government in Chișinău to make it possible, Prime Minister Dorin Recean has said.
Speaking to the Financial Times (FT), Recean said Moscow is actively interfering in Moldova’s upcoming parliamentary elections, set for September, as part of a broader strategy to expand its military presence on Ukraine’s southwestern flank.
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“This is a huge effort to undermine Moldovan democracy,” Recean said, adding that the Kremlin’s goal is to consolidate its military position in the separatist region.
Russia currently maintains around 1,500 troops in Transnistria, a Russian-speaking enclave that declared independence from Moldova in 1990. While these soldiers wear Russian insignia, most are locally recruited, with only a small number actually dispatched from Russia. Their main role is to guard a large Soviet-era weapons depot.
“Currently, their forces there are almost meaningless. But with a higher military presence in Transnistria that a Russia-leaning government can allow for, they can consolidate,” Recean said.
He added that the 10,000-troop figure is based on intelligence assessments.
“You can imagine with 10,000 troops what the leverage and pressure would be on the southwestern part of Ukraine,” he said, adding the threat would also extend to NATO member Romania.
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Recean accused Russia of spending heavily to sway Moldova’s electorate, including online propaganda and illegal financial transfers to voters and political parties. He said Moscow spent the equivalent of 1% of Moldova’s GDP on its influence campaigns in 2024 alone.
Moldovan border guards have reportedly intercepted citizens returning from Russia with as much as $1.2 million in cash, and investigators found that 130,000 voters in last year’s presidential election received funds from Russian sources.
Last October, an EU membership referendum passed by just 0.7%, following what Chișinău said was a major Russian disinformation and interference campaign.
“We’re very cautious because their propaganda, their communication mechanisms are very powerful. They are spending a lot of money,” Recean said.
In an interview with Kyiv Post, Iurii Briceag – former head of Moldova’s military intelligence department said: “If Ukraine weakens, Russian troops from Transnistria could reach Chișinău in a matter of days.”
Briceag led Moldova’s military intelligence from 2020 to 2022, a period of intensifying Russian-backed disinformation, political subversion, and hybrid attacks.
“I don’t believe Ukraine can lose,” he told Kyiv Post. “But if the Russians manage to break through and bypass Odesa, they could move into Transnistria. They already have the equipment and manpower there. In just a few days, they could reach Chișinău. These are very real threats, and we must look at them soberly.”