There’s nothing but pride at stake when Friday evening brings us Scotland v Iceland, but there will be personal agendas aplenty.

That’s certainly the case for 61-year-old Scotland manager Steve Clarke, whose future is under scrutiny after a relegation from League A in the UEFA Nations League, which came when the March 2025 international break saw them follow up a 1-0 playoff away leg win in Athens with a 3-0 loss on home soil.

With their World Cup qualification campaign not starting until September, can the Scots start to build momentum and end a wait of 28 years to appear at a World Cup? Let’s find out…

Scotland v Iceland tips

Scotland to win
Both teams to score: yes
Scott McTominay to score
Victor Palsson to commit 1+ fouls
Grant Hanley to commit 1+ fouls

WHEN: Friday, June 6th, 7.45pm
WHERE: Hampden Park, Glasgow
TV: BBC One Scotland

Scotland to win

Scotland’s November wins against Croatia and Poland were their only successes in the most recent Nations League campaign, coming after a return of just one point from the first 12. Of course, it wasn’t enough to spare them a playoff that ultimately proved to be their undoing.

The Tartan Army’s heavy home loss to Greece was all the more surprising when we consider that Scotland got four home points against Croatia and Portugal in the 2024/25 campaign, and even performed well in their 3-2 loss to Poland.

As for Iceland, they also finished third on seven points in their group, paying the price for their shoddy defending. Their tally of 13 goals conceded was matched or exceeded only by two sides – Finland and Kazakhstan – before they were demolished 5-2 on aggregate by Kosovo in March’s League B/C playoffs.

This Iceland team is a far cry from the one who shocked Europe at the 2016 Euros. They lack real star talent, and will struggle to get the win over Scotland in the face of a raucous Hampden Park.

Both teams to score

Scotland should win this, but they’ve kept just three clean sheets in their eight games across this season and only have a 50% clean sheet percentage at home. Iceland aren’t an elite team of course, but having seen how Greece attacked Scotland in their last game, they’ll have some confidence.

That night saw Greece take 13 shots – five were on target, with three finding the net. Unless the Scots have worked on the precise issues that allowed the former Euro winners such free rein in their box, Andri Gudjohnsen and Albert Gudmundsson could cause an aging Scottish defence problems.

Iceland only managed two wins in eight games this season, but they managed to score in every single game, meaning that attacking clearly isn’t as much of an issue as defending.

For context, Iceland scored three times in two games against Turkey and the same against the Welsh in their most recent UNL campaign. Scotland are better than Wales overall, but the margin isn’t huge and Iceland will have a great chance of scoring here.

Scott McTominay to score

It’s not a sentence that anybody expected to read 12 months ago, but behind the new Pope, Scott McTominay has had the second-biggest rise to holy status in Italy this year. The 28-year old arrived in Naples after escaping the rot at Old Trafford, and much like many players to exit from Man Utd, he’s managed to rejuvenate his career.

Impressively, McTominay has scored 12 times in 34 games for Napoli this season, and deservedly claimed Serie A’s MVP award for 2024/25.

The idea of superhuman performances from McTominay isn’t a new one for Scotland fans though, and he’s been the best player in the Scotland shirt for a number of years now. He’s always been decisive, with 12 goals in 60 appearances – an impressive number given how he’s played in nearly every position on the pitch in that time.

He’s had a career packed with key goals too, including late winners over the likes of Israel and a brace against Spain. In the qualifiers for Euro 2024, he was the team’s top scorer with seven goals and he’ll continue to be the team’s most dangerous threat in front of goal, given the country’s current dearth of genuine striking talent.

Victor Palsson to commit 1 or more fouls

Iceland’s 34-year old, 48-cap veteran has some experience of Scottish football, having played a season at Hibs early in his career. He’s been shunted all over the park at international level, playing defensive midfielder, at the heart of defence and sometimes at right-back.

He’s a good leader, a reasonable no-nonsense central defender – but he is absolutely not a RB, as he showed under Wayne Rooney at Plymouth Argyle earlier in the season. Palsson later moved into the heart of the defence for Argyle and his performances improved hugely, but he has been used as fullback at times for his country over this past season.

Wherever he plays, Palsson will be committed to the cause, and that often leads to fouls. He’s a smart player in general, and one who isn’t afraid of committing a foul to break up opposition play.

Grant Hanley to commit 1 or more fouls

The striker issue is perhaps Scotland’s biggest source of frustration, but there’s also some reason to be concerned about resources at centre-back. For a nation that has traditionally had some pretty good central defenders – such as Colin Hendry and David Weir – it’s telling that Grant Hanley is still playing for the Tartan Army at 33 years old.

He played just three times in the Championship for Norwich in the first half of the season, before a move to League One winners Birmingham, in which he again was a backup, starting in just three of his 14 league appearances. He’s fairly rusty and a player who looks increasingly poor when pulled out of position, which increases the likelihood of him bringing opponents down illegally.

Scotland to Win
Both Teams to Score
Scott McTominay to score
Victor Palsson to commit 1+ fouls
Grant Hanley to commit 1+ fouls

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