The May jobs report is expected to show hiring slowed while the unemployment rate held flat. The data’s release will come as investors closely watch for any further signs of slowing in the US labor market.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics data is slated for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Economists expect nonfarm payroll to have risen by 125,000 in May and the unemployment rate to have held steady at 4.2%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
In April, the US economy added 177,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held flat at 4.2%.
Here are the numbers Wall Street is expecting Friday, according to data from Bloomberg:
Nonfarm payroll: +125,000 vs. +177,000 in April
Unemployment rate: 4.2% vs. 4.2%
Average hourly earnings, month over month: +0.3% vs. +0.2%
Average hourly earnings, year over year: +3.7% vs. +3.8%
Average weekly hours worked: 34.3 vs. 34.3
The release comes as signs of slowing in the jobs market have begun to emerge in recent data. On Wednesday, ADP data showed the private sector added 37,000 jobs in May, the lowest monthly total in more than two years. Then on Thursday, weekly filings for unemployment benefits hit their highest level since October 2024. Meanwhile, continuing claims hovered near their highest level in nearly four years.
“The latest jobless claims data are signaling looser labor market conditions, with an uptick in initial claims suggesting layoffs may be rising while the elevated level of continue[d] claims confirms it is difficult for unemployed workers to find new jobs,” Oxford Economics lead economist Nancy Vanden Houten wrote in a note to clients.
Some economists expect the cooling seen in other labor market data to be on display in Friday’s report.
“The May jobs report will likely indicate that labor market dynamics slowed last month as elevated policy uncertainty, tariffs and reduced immigration flows weighed on employment growth,” EY senior economist Lyda Boussour wrote in a note previewing the release.
With fears of further labor market slowing percolating, Citi head of US equity trading strategy Stuart Kaiser told clients in a weekly research note that a print in line with consensus expectations would be a “a modest positive for equities given risks are clearly from weaker data.”
The May jobs report comes as investors watch for signs of rapid cooling in the US labor market amid uncertainty driven by tariffs. (Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images) · PATRICK T. FALLON via Getty Images
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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