Roughly one year after Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline expansion (TMX) entered service, more barrels of Canadian heavy crude are seaborne and headed to global markets than ever before. The 590,000 barrel per day expansion, which was funded by the Canadian government and brought the original pipeline’s nameplate capacity to 890,000 b/d, was always meant to extend the market reach of Canadian crude. But the continued market diversification comes at a key moment, with increased trade tensions between Canada and the US, its largest trading partner, and demand from traditional buyers on the US West Coast on the wane amid refinery rationalizations in California. Asia, particularly China, is the main destination for TMX crude today and figures to be a strong source of continued demand for Canada. China is now dominating waterborne shipments of crude produced in the oil sands of Alberta and departing from the Westridge Marine Terminal in British Columbia. Data from tanker tracker Kpler suggests the majority of TMX exports have been China-bound since January of this year, namely to the ports of Jieyang, Ningbo and Zhoushan. In May, China accounted for 288,000 b/d of exports from Westridge — a huge jump from the 18,000 b/d it imported from Canada a year ago. Refineries on the US West Coast, traditionally the main buyers of crude exported from Western Canada, took only 104,000 b/d in May, per Kpler. Some TMX crude also ships via lateral pipeline south across the border to Washington state.
