Quick overview
WTI crude oil futures are holding firm around $65.40 per barrel—a level not seen in over two months—as investors digest the latest developments in U.S.–China trade talks. High-level discussions that began Monday in London are continuing today, with early signals pointing to progress.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the meeting “good,” while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick described it as “fruitful,” helping ease concerns about global trade tensions impacting energy demand.
While markets welcomed this diplomatic thaw, other factors continue to influence oil sentiment. Tensions surrounding the Russia–Ukraine conflict remain unresolved, and uncertainty looms over a potential U.S.–Iran nuclear agreement. These unresolved geopolitical risks are adding a layer of support for crude prices, reinforcing oil’s role as a hedge against uncertainty.
Supply Risks Linger as OPEC+ Faces Pressure
While the demand side gains some clarity, the supply outlook is becoming increasingly complex. Saudi Arabia has urged OPEC+ to increase output by at least 411,000 barrels per day starting in August, with a potential follow-up increase in September.
This call for greater production is raising concerns among traders about a possible oversupply later this year, especially if global demand fails to match expectations. The OPEC+ response to Saudi Arabia’s proposal will be closely watched in upcoming meetings.
Still, prices remain supported in the near term, with bulls defending critical levels just above $65.00.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Picture: Bulls Eye $66.73 Next
From a chart perspective, WTI Crude (USOIL) is holding within a healthy ascending trendline pattern on the 2-hour chart, reflecting strong buyer interest on dips. After breaking past $64.47 on June 7, the price briefly touched $65.62 and is now consolidating below that resistance.
WTI Crude Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
A bullish engulfing candle on June 6 marked the recent shift in trend, and the RSI at 66.44 confirms momentum remains on the bulls’ side—though some consolidation may be needed before a clean breakout.
Trade Setup:
Entry (long): On 2-hour close above $65.62
Stop-loss: Below $65.00 or under trendline
Target 1: $66.20
Target 2: $66.73
Note: Avoid chasing breakouts without volume confirmation
Unless the trendline breaks, the structure remains bullish. A confirmed move above $65.62 could open the path toward fresh monthly highs.
Arslan Butt
Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.
His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.
His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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