How the looming threat of Israel bombing Iran could lead to all-out war

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1. Tensions between Iran and Israel are nearing boiling point, with reports that an Israeli “operation” in Iran is imminent.

   The US has partially evacuated its staff from neighbouring Iraq amid concerns that Iran could retaliate on American sites there due to its close relationship with Israel.

   It comes after US talks aiming to wind back Iran’s nuclear programme appear to have stalled.

   Donald Trump has said that Iran “can’t have a [nuclear weapon](https://inews.co.uk/topic/nuclear-weapons?srsltid=AfmBOoqLpJVddcf7bzHlV-sKSpMppAEHcssCtaOuE2uA9XPoqBdBpZqs&ico=in-line_link)”, and that there would be “trouble” if the talks do not bear fruit.

   What scenarios could play out – and is the US supporting the plans?

   # Operation called off

   Reports of the US withdrawal from Iraq and Israel’s looming operation came from US Government sources briefing to the American press.

   In doing so, the US may be trying to deter Israel from launching the attack altogether.

   “You do something like that as a way to expose Israel,” said Rowena Abdul Razak, an Iran expert and former lecturer in Middle Eastern history at the London School of Economics and Queen Mary University.

   “In the best case scenario, this is possibly a way to deter Israel from actually doing anything. They’ve been exposed – the US is showing they’re not going to offer any support from Iraq. This could be a tactic. It’s not an improbable one, to get it all out in the open, and then Israel would be in a difficult position.”

   “We don’t know for sure what’s been said behind closed doors, but the fact that they’re at least revealing Israel’s plans indicates the US doesn’t want to be a part of this and is, to some extent, warning Iran.”

   Dr Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow at defence think-tank RUSI, also suggested this could be a ploy by the US to warn Iran it was ready for conflict to force the issue on a nuclear deal.

   “This is a high-risk gamble,” she said. “In recent days there has been a growing sense that the window of opportunity for a US-Iran deal may be closing. The US may be prepping to deter Iranian retaliation in case of an Israeli strike, but it is unclear if it’s real strategy or leverage-building posturing to pressure Tehran into a ‘quick deal’.”

   She added: “With the next round of talks in Oman imminent, last night’s movement may be part of a strategy to pressure Iran by showing Washington’s willingness to at least give Israel an amber light to unilaterally strike targets in Iran.”

2. I’m always surprised that Iran never really seems interested in negotiating. They will come to the table… but basically don’t offer anything or agree to any concessions. 

   Take houthi attacks on red sea shipping. That seems like a card you’d want to play. A lot of countries have direct and indirect interests in this. If Iran were to put it on the table… there would be at least some interest/pressure to take it. 

   Iraq would have been a major card, during the Obama negotiations.  

   They’ve got a “we don’t negotiate with terrorists” kind of approach. I don’t understand it. 

3. What in the world is this headline? How about “How the looming threat of Iran developing a nuclear bomb could lead to all-out war”?

4. Does anyone remember when Iran orchestrated its proxies Hamas and hezbolla to kill a thousand Israeli civilians on Oct 7th and fire rockets non stop ?

   Does anyone remember how multiple Iranian leaders have said the holocaust was a hoax?

   If Iran tried this with the US they would have been obliterated 

5. what exactly can Iran do to respond to their nuclear facilities being destroyed? aren’t they pretty much a paper tiger?

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