Live updates: Wall Street closes higher, ASX set to rise, Trump urges ‘numbskull’ US Fed to cut rates

ASX 200 futures: +0.5%Australian dollar: flat at 65.32 US centsWall Street: S&P 500 +0.4% Nasdaq +0.3% Dow +0.2%Europe: FTSE +0.2% EuroStoxx -0.3% Spot gold: +1.8% to $US3,406/ounceBrent crude: +1% to $US68.86/barrelIron ore: -0.7% to $US94.45 a tonneBitcoin: -2.4% to $US106,149

Prices current around 7:45am AEST.

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

Brent hit a two month high this week, after reports that US forces were considering withdrawing from Iraq, creating market volatility concerns.

Brent is now steady, while oil overall is rising 0.75%.

Here’s a note from ANZ.

“Brent crude rallied early in the session after various US media outlets reported that Israel is ramping up plans to attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities. 

“President Trump flagged the possibility of a massive conflict, although he advised against action while talks continue. This follows threats from Iran that it will target US military bases in Iraq if a conflict breaks out.

“The risk of supply disruptions comes just as OPEC ramps up its production hikes.”

More on the Middle East tensions here.

The future of the AUKUS submarine deal is under question after the Trump administration announced it’s reviewing the agreement.

The head of research at Strategic Analysis Australia, Marcus Hellyer, says the deal may not necessarily be dead but it’s likely it will cost the Australian government more.

He says US Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth has made it clear America’s allies will need to step up their defence spending, raising it to 3.5 per cent of GDP. 

Dr Hellyer says he doesn’t think it’s an unfair request, given the United States would be supplying Australia with submarines that it would like to have in its own fleet.

This interview with Alicia Barry on ABC’s The Business.

This reporting from Reuters.

US President Donald Trump on Thursday said he would not fire Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, adding that he “may have to force something” as part of his ongoing push for the central bank to lower rates.

“Raise your rates. You don’t have to keep them up here. If it’s going to go up, I’m OK with you raising — but it’s down, and we’re going out to financing, and I may have to force something,” he said at the White House.

Trump last week had said that a decision on the next Fed chair would come very soon.

Speaking at the White House on Thursday, Trump slammed the Fed chair over the lack of rate cuts, calling him a numbskull but adding: “I’m not going to fire him.”

The FOMC meets to discuss rates next week!

Check out this piece by our reporter Rhiana Whitson, where the solar industry is calling for more cohesive management of the looming waste stream of solar panels.

After that cooler-than-anticipated inflation and business cost data in the US, the market is now fully pricing in a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September, ANZ notes.

“And another 25bp cut in December,” they add.

“That pricing implies the impact of higher tariffs on inflation will be transitory. That has been our expectation for some time. As service price inflation moderates, that too will help to contain the inflationary impact of tariffs.

“We acknowledge it is still early in the tariff-to-inflation cycle, but the signs are encouraging.”

While the latest inflation data out in the US didn’t show a price spike for shoppers from boosted tariffs, new figures for businesses are showing glimmers of this issue.

Here’s a note from CBA’s analysts.

“US producer prices increased less than US economist expected in May and in‑line with consumer prices earlier in the week.  However, tariffs are starting to increase US businesses’ costs that will over time be passed on to consumers.

“We consider there is much more tariff‑induced price increases in the pipeline.  The official Producer Price Index explicitly excludes taxes such as tariffs. 

“Our adjustment shows tariffs have started to increase businesses costs. 

“We consider it is a matter of time before businesses pass on more of their tariff costs to consumers.  The longer time for the tariff costs to be passed on to consumers has encouraged us to expect the next interest rate cut by the FOMC in October.”

The worst aviation disaster in more than a decade has shocked the world. Air India officials have confirmed the crash killed at least 241 people and left scores more injured.

Significant questions remain about how a Boeing aircraft with an excellent safety record could crash so soon after take-off.

According to Reuters, US officials say they have not seen any immediate safety data that would require halting Boeing BA.N787 flights.

However, they emphasised they “will not hesitate to implement any safety recommendations that may arise. We will follow the facts and put safety first”.

Boeing’s shares have slumped as financial markets digest the news too. The plane makers shares, which are listed on the NYSE, are currently down about 4.7%.  

For more on this developing story, here’s an explainer on what we know so far from ABC News.

Our currency has been hovering around 64 to 65 US cents the last few days, with it momentarily pushing ever so slightly closer to 66 US cents early yesterday.

Right now, it’s ever so slightly up to 65.32 US cents. CBA’s currency analysts note this is simply because the US currency is weaker, possibly as markets price in rate cuts.

“There is no important data released in Australia or China that might move AUD/USD today,” they add.

“We expect AUD/USD to remain a function of the USD trend today and to end the week not too far from current levels.”

Good morning!

It looks like Wall Street had more time to digest that US inflation data for May, which showed prices didn’t spike that month, as some were predicting they might do thanks to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Wall Street’s major indexes made gains (albeit muted ones) while Trump has come out urging the US Federal Reserve to cut rates, with this on-brand message:

“All he has to do is lower it. Europe’s done 10 lowerings. We’ve done none. Because of one numbskull that sits there, [saying] ‘I don’t see enough reason to cut the rates.'”

FYI: The Fed cut rates three times last year, and economists are tipping they’ll cut more this year, especially after that inflation data. The ECB has cut eight times recently.

ASX futures are pointing to positive trade here on Friday, with them showing gains of about half a per cent. That follows a dip yesterday, and a rocky day of trade marked by reactions in various manners to ongoing US-China trade talks.