Don’t worry about nuclear warfare – this is what Putin is really up to

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1. Russian President Vladimir Putin has [repeatedly hinted at using nuclear weapons against the West](https://inews.co.uk/news/decoding-putins-nuclear-threat-war-nato-3389428?srsltid=AfmBOoo8Jiyzvx-IH9tgEPI4R2xt3nYBxwrM76qZdwLBQKGeH4CepZw_&ico=in-line_link), sparking fear of an unthinkable nuclear disaster.

   But experts warn that Russia is far more likely to use simpler methods to harm the UK, from [cyber warfare](https://inews.co.uk/topic/cyber-attacks?srsltid=AfmBOopoKO3SHoVrcztIvIEhU7qdAXpo7YMwoeWHEqyzbj83X-8BFr2Q&ico=in-line_link) to disinformation.

   With the threat of [escalating conflict in the Middle East](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/explosions-heard-in-tehran-as-israel-announces-strike-on-iran-3746891?ico=in-line_link) and the Russia-Ukraine war showing no sign of resolution, Katja Bego, senior research fellow in international security at Chatham House, said that rhetoric around nuclear war could be “a little bit hysterical”.

   “You can understand it, because the consequences of it would be unimaginable. But I think the actual likelihood of [Russia turning this conflict nuclear,](https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/this-is-what-will-happen-if-putin-attacks-the-uk-with-a-nuclear-missile-3734544?srsltid=AfmBOopzG-8yYbRmyjx2sOpZoDkPMxuRHzPRi_l0KD1Xlxm7xRMSJUJg&ico=in-line_link) or in any way using nuclear weapons, is still still extremely low, for the very reason they know that would have devastating consequences in the other direction too.

   “I think we really should see a lot of those threats more as posturing or kind of attempts to deter the west or [Nato countries from helping Ukraine](https://inews.co.uk/news/nato-ukraine-support-us-3573976?srsltid=AfmBOoqpTVxeL-SjCcOXXQdjs9vQJ1QyIlaziJz8IPT853onP9mHk1oB&ico=in-line_link) or taking other actions that Russia doesn’t like.”

   Instead, Russia is turning to a playbook of disruptive acts which skirt just below the threshold for triggering all-out war.

   “I think the hybrid stuff that we see is a much bigger issue than we even think,” Bego said.

   These activities are aimed at sowing discord and polarisation in the West, undermining democratic processes and public trust, and even exacting economic costs from large cyber incidents.

   This may be designed not only to weaken European countries but make their publics less inclined to support Ukraine and risk incurring Russia’s wrath

   But they may also be laying the groundwork for something larger.

   “I feel that this is also testing the waters a little bit and prepping for something larger. It could also be about finding out how Nato countries respond when they do something – will they act? How vulnerable are some of these systems?”

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