IF this weekend’s four All-Ireland preliminary quarter-finals go to plan, then Armagh will face Kerry in the All-Ireland quarter-finals in two weeks’ time.
The reigning champions knocked Jack O’Connor’s side out in a gripping extra-time semi-final last year before going on to claim the second title in the county’s history by beating Galway.
There are pretty heavy favourites’ tags on Kerry (v Cavan), Donegal (v Louth), Galway (v Down) and Dublin (v Cork) following Monday morning’s draw for the prelims.
If all four favourites win then the only possible draw left for Armagh is Kerry.
Kieran McGeeney’s side could potentially face any of those four underdogs if they came through. The more underdogs that win, the more it would dilute the chances of an Armagh-Kerry fixture.
But as it stands, both teams will be spending the incoming week with at least one eye on each other.
The quarter-finals have, on paper, potential mouth-watering quality about them.
That none of the four provincial champions won their group creates a new dynamic that the soon-to-be-disposed-of group stages hasn’t thrown up before.
Armagh, Tyrone, Monaghan and Meath qualified directly for the last eight.
Tyrone can only face one of Kerry, Galway/Down, Dublin/Cork or Louth in their quarter-final tie.
Every county’s potential All-Ireland quarter-final opponents
Monaghan’s options are wider. There’s a pretty good chance they’d face Donegal for the second time this summer, but if both made it to a semi-final, they wouldn’t be able to face each other at that point again. One of the many quirks.
Donegal can only play Monaghan or Meath in the All-Ireland quarter-finals.
Louth’s Leinster title has come to spare them very little. They could only have drawn Donegal, Kerry or Dublin on Monday morning and if they beat the Ulster champions, they can only face Armagh or Tyrone in the last eight.
If there is a prelim shock that doesn’t involve Cavan taking them out, Kerry would still be guaranteed a date with an Ulster side. Their only options outside of Armagh would be Monaghan or Tyrone.
The quarter-finals are subject to the avoidance of repeat pairings from provincial finals and the round robin stage where possible.
At the semi-final stage, the intention is to avoid a repeat of championship game from any point in the 2025 season.
Short of providing you with the graphic below and letting you work out your own county’s path, we won’t even start down that rabbit hole at this stage.
Who each county could potentially face in the All-Ireland semi-finals.
There have never been more variables in a football championship.
Trying to guess what’s coming next is a fool’s errand.
Who each county can potentially meet in an All-Ireland quarter-final
Armagh: Kerry, Cavan, Down, Cork, Louth
Monaghan: Kerry, Cavan, Galway, Dublin, Cork, Donegal, Louth
Meath: Cavan, Down, Galway, Dublin, Cork, Donegal
Tyrone: Kerry, Down, Galway, Dublin, Cork, Louth
Kerry: Armagh, Monaghan, Tyrone
Cavan: Armagh, Monaghan, Meath
Down: Armagh, Meath, Tyrone
Galway: Meath, Monaghan, Tyrone
Dublin: Meath, Monaghan, Tyrone
Cork: Armagh, Monaghan, Tyrone
Donegal: Monaghan, Meath
Louth: Armagh, Tyrone
Possible semi-finals
Armagh: v Monaghan/Meath/Cork/Kerry/Cavan/Louth/Down
Monaghan: v Armagh/Tyrone/Meath/Dublin/Cork/Kerry/Cavan/Galway
Tyrone: v Monaghan/Meath/Dublin/Cork/Kerry/Louth/Down/Galway
Meath: v Armagh/Monaghan/Tyrone/Cavan/Donegal/Down/Galway
Dublin: v Monaghan/Tyrone/Kerry/Cavan/Donegal/Louth/Down
Cork: v Armagh/Monaghan/Tyrone/Cavan/Donegal/Louth/Down/Galway
Kerry: v Armagh/Monaghan/Tyrone/Dublin/Donegal/Louth/Down/Galway
Cavan: v Armagh/Monaghan/Meath/Dublin/Cork/Louth/Down/Galway
Donegal: v Meath/Dublin/Cork/Kerry/Cavan/Galway
Louth: v Armagh/Tyrone/Dublin/Cork/Kerry/Cavan/Galway
Down: v Armagh/Tyrone/Meath/Dublin/Cork/Kerry/Cavan