Italy’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have registered positive growth in the first quarter of the year, a Bank of Italy official said in a parliamentary hearing on Thursday, without giving a precise figure.
The euro zone’s third-largest economy has been close to stagnation since mid-2024, with GDP edging up 0.1% in the fourth quarter of last year from the previous three months, after a flat reading in the third quarter.
“According to our estimates, GDP increased again in the first quarter of 2025,” Andrea Brandolini, deputy head of the Bank of Italy’s economy and statistics department, told lawmakers.
The national statistics office, Istat, is set to issue preliminary first quarter GDP data on April 30.
In its multi-year economic framework issued last week, the government cut its forecast for 2025 GDP growth to 0.6% from a projection of 1.2% made in September, and lowered its 2026 forecast to 0.8% from 1.1%.
A significant part of Italy’s growth depends on billions of euros coming from the EU’s COVID pandemic recovery funds, but Brandolini warned of delays and possible missed targets in their use.
“Delays are accumulating, especially in the execution of public works, with the risk that some goals and objectives will not be achieved by the deadline of the plan in August 2026”, he said.
Brandolini noted that the government managed to spend only around 64 billion euros ($72.81 billion) through 2024, around one-third of available EU funds, and set itself very ambitious targets to recover lost ground.
The budget framework forecasts EU COVID funds expenditure of 40 billion euros in 2025, 80 billion euros in 2026 and 12 billion euros beyond 2026. “These are very high amounts if compared to the use of resources recorded so far,” he said.
($1 = 0.8790 euros)