In the second quarter of 2025, Croatia’s economic growth may accelerate to 3.1% year-on-year, according to high-frequency indicators, after slowing to 2.9% in the first quarter, the Croatian National Bank (HNB) reported in its latest Macroeconomic Trends and Forecasts.
After the real GDP growth rate rose to a relatively strong 3.9% for all of 2024, economic activity slowed significantly at the start of 2025.
According to data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics (DZS), real GDP grew by just 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of 2025, and by 2.9% year-on-year.
The HNB attributes the slowdown to temporary factors, such as the boycott of retail chains, which led to a drop in personal consumption compared to the previous quarter—even though household disposable income continued to grow strongly in real terms. Investments also declined quarter-on-quarter, and the boost from export growth was offset by a sharper rise in imports. As a result, net foreign demand contributed negatively to quarterly GDP.
Government spending growth also slowed, while inventory build-up (which includes statistical discrepancies) contributed positively to overall growth—possibly another side effect of the retail boycott.
Looking by sector, the slowdown largely reflects the decline in retail trade, though many other sectors also recorded weaker performance, the HNB notes. Still, data for the start of Q2 suggests a clear recovery in economic activity.