New Delhi, Jun 21 (KNN) India’s petroleum consumption is projected to grow strongly at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.37 per cent between 2025 and 2030, according to a new report by the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI).
This robust uptick is primarily fueled by surging demand in the manufacturing and transportation sectors.
Over this period, key fuel categories—diesel, petrol, aviation turbine fuel (ATF) and petroleum coke—are expected to lead consumption growth.
The expansion is underpinned by sustained economic momentum, with India’s GDP forecast to grow at over 6 per cent annually. This will drive a primary energy demand increase of 5.4 per cent per year.
In addition to oil, natural gas use will rise substantially, climbing nearly 60% to reach 103 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually by 2030. Growth in city gas distribution networks and industrial use are major contributors.
Despite rising consumption, domestic crude oil production is not expected to keep pace. India is projected to refine 48.5 million metric tonnes (MMT) by 2026–27, before it gently declines to 45.5 MMT by 2029–30, due to ageing fields.
Consequently, import dependency remains high—over 85% of domestic crude needs are met through imports, challenging energy security in a volatile geopolitical climate.
On pricing, global Brent crude is forecast to ease from approximately USD 81/barrel in 2024 to USD 66/barrel by 2026, driven by increased output outside OPEC+ and a slowing pace of demand growth.
Complementing this, the International Energy Agency highlights India as the world’s fastest-growing oil consumer.
It forecasts an additional 1 million barrels per day by 2030, positioning India as the key global driver of oil demand growth.
(KNN Bureau)