Brig Pankaj Chib
It was on night intervening 6-7 May that Operation Sindoor commenced and came to sudden halt within 90 hours. It caught many by surprise, specially in India, where it was felt that India had an upper hand after it had made many of PAF airfields non operational. In this many of us lost the bigger picture as to how India called Pakistan’s nuclear bluff and debunked its practice of “cultivated” irrationality.
A deeper look into the details on events between 07-10 May which are surfacing now, indicates that India not only called Pakistan’s nuclear bluff but also buried Pakistan’s policy of “cultivated” irrationality once for all. After, Pakistan conducted its nuclear tests in 1998, it has mastered an art of “cultivated” irrationality on nuclear issues wherein it, after every terror incident in India, displayed unpredictable and volatile behavior to prevent Indian punitive response in conventional domain. This cultivated irrationality, which begins immediately after every Pak-sponsored terrorist incident in India, plans to even continue during the conventional phase. This behavior aims to seek international intervention at every stage so as to avoid war and should war takes place, prevent punishment by India. It is believed that Musharaf, being an artillery officer converted to SSG commando, was the author of cultivated irrationality.
Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine, policy and strategy are not available in open domain but it is not difficult to determine contours of these which were formulated and last refined by Lt Gen Khalid Ahmed Kidwai during Exercise Azm-e-Nau (2009-2013). The nuclear policy, doctrine and strategy formulated by Kidwai still remains central to Pakistan’s strategic calculus even today.
Lt Gen Kidwai, an artillery officer, was a POW of 1971 Indo-Pak War and was Director General Strategic Plans Divisions (SPD, nerve centre of Pakistan’s Nuclear Command Authority). He served almost for 13 years ie from 2000 (inception of SPD) to 2013. He, as DG SPD advocated a nuclear policy based on nuclear sabre rattling(of reminding world that India and Pak are two nuclear nations who cannot afford to go for war) immediately on any terror incident in India and threat of First Use of nuclear weapons mixed with Musharaff’s “cultivated” irrationality.
The nuclear part of Exercise Azm-e-Nau was very interesting with Kidwai as Director of wargame, General Officer Commanding (GOC) Strategic Forces North (SFN) as Commander Army Strategic Forces Command (ASFC) and GOC Strategic Forces South (SFS) heading and representing Indian wargame syndicate as “Foxland” syndicate. During this wargame, while GOC SFN played strategy of “Graduated Response with First use Option” and GOC SFSwargamed the strategy of “One Rung Escalation”. The most interesting part of this wargame was the summing up session where GOC SFS opined that if Indians change their politico-military aim to bring Pakistan’s nuclear programme under international safeguards, and accomplish this aim, India will get the Kashmir Issue resolved, automatically. Incidentally our Raksha Mantri also stated something similar after Operation Sindoor.
Post Exercise Azm-e-Nau, Pakistan military leadership has been advocating a nuclear strategy which is to influence conduct of Indo-Pak War (both in terms of scope and scale) including through intra war deterrence. So in a way Pakistan military leadership has been telling the world that nuclear strategy will facilitate its tri-services military strategy. As part of Pakistan’s nuclear strategy, they have also been advocating that Pakistan respond strategically should India targets any of its strategic assets (located in places like Kirana Hills, Nillore, Khushab, Kahuta etc).
Pakistan in its National Defence University (NDU) précis on Military Methodology teaches about formulation of hypotheses which are nothing but Pakistan’s visualization of adversary’s likely courses of actions. Accordingly, during Exercise Azm-e-Nau, Kidwai made various Nuclear Hypotheses which were primarily the assessment of courses of action (in nuclear domain) open to India in any future conflict. In one of the hypotheses Kidwai felt that India, after having caused significant damage to Pakistan’s military and economic infrastructure – something which calls for Pakistan to go nuclear – will foreclose Pakistan’s nuclear option by its superior information warfare. It is like calling Pakistan’s nuclear bluff.
When we take a look at Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) inputs on Operation Sindoor events, the events of night intervening 9-10 May and those in early hours of 10 May were probably the ones which were the most important events wherein India not only debunked Pakistan’s nuclear bluff but also threw its cultivated irrationality into waste bin. It was very evident from the fact that Pakistan DGMO called Indian DGMO, repeatedly for an urgent ceasefire.
It seems that all began with a Pakistani missile being intercepted over Sirsa just past midnight, which as per media reports was probably headed towards NCR. Anyone who has intimate knowledge of Pak missiles inventory (available with its 2 and 21 Artillery Divisions and Army Strategic Forces Command/ASFC) can clearly make out that the said missile was one held with Army Strategic Forces Command (ASFC) but with conventional war head and not those held with its Artillery Divisions. The straight line drawn West of Line Delhi-Sirsa incidentally passes through a location which is Forward Deployment Area (FDA) of a Missile Regiment Artillery (MRA) of the SMG located at Sargodha. It was a perfect example of Pakistan’s cultivated irrationality wherein it wanted to indicate to West its intentions to go strategic in case India doesnot halt its further operations.
India’s response to Pakistan’s midnight misadventure was swift, measured and punitive when it rendered number of PAF airfields non operational between 0200 h to 0300 h. This was followed by morning strikes on Sargodha and its adjoining areas which incidentally, apart from having PAF Base Mushaf, Central Ammunition Depot and 3 Air Defence Division, also houses “Administrative Camp” named Azadi Camp and a “Technical Site” numbered *6*of one of the Strategic Missile Groups (SMG) of ASFC. It was this destruction of airfields and incidental threat to its strategic assets that forced Maj Gen Kashif Abdullah, Pak DGMO to call Lt Gen Rajiv Ghai, Indian DGMO, pleading for sudden ceasefire.
It is not the first time that Pak resorted to nuclear sabre rattling and displayed its cultivated irrationality after any terror incident. Right from Operation Vijay (Pakistan named its operation as Operation KohPaima meaning Measuring the Mountain) – first Pakistan Army’s misadventure after it went nuclear, overtly – Pakistan, after initiating every terror incident in India, has used this tactics to prevent India response in conventional domain. However, it is for the first time that India not only called its nuclear bluff but also debunked its cultivated irrationality which he has been employing in the past to fool the West.