Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, at the IMF headquarters in Washington, on April 15, 2024. BASTIEN INZAURRALDE/AFP
No recession, but global growth has been sharply downgraded: In its forecasts published on Tuesday, April 22, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected global growth at 2.8% in 2025 and 3% in 2026. These figures take into account all tariff measures announced up to April 4 by US President Donald Trump and his administration. In just three months, the IMF has revised its 2025 and 2026 forecasts downward by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively.
The sharpest decline is in the United States, where growth is now projected at 1.8% in 2025, down from the previously expected 2.7%. However, this drop is not due to tariffs alone. The eurozone, less severely affected, is expected to grow by 0.8% – 0.2 percentage points below earlier forecasts. China’s growth is also revised downward, from 4.5% to 4%. As for France, the IMF now anticipates GDP growth of 0.6% in 2025, compared to the earlier estimate of 0.8%.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, urges countries to “review the trade system” and develop new rules to resolve ongoing tensions.
In which economies do tariff increases have the most impact?
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