America’s War With Iran: What Comes After U.S. Strikes

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/americas-war-iran

Posted by ForeignAffairsMag

13 comments

  1. [SS from the essay by Ilan Goldenberg, Senior Vice President and Chief Policy Officer at J Street. He previously served as Special Advisor on the Middle East to Vice President Kamala Harris and as Iran Team Chief at the Office of the Secretary of Defense.]

    The United States has attacked Iran. Just days after suggesting he might delay any American military action for weeks, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on June 21 that U.S. aircraft had struck three Iranian nuclear sites, including the deeply buried facility at Fordow. Iranian officials confirmed that the strikes had taken place. Although Trump insisted that the sites had been “obliterated,” it remains unclear what damage the attacks have done.

    It is clear, however, that with this U.S. intervention, the war Israel launched against Iran over a week ago has entered a new phase. Events could turn in several directions. The American attack could indeed lead to Iranian capitulation on terms friendly to Israel and the United States. But it is equally or even more likely to draw the United States deeper into the war with profoundly negative consequences. Iran will almost certainly seek some manner of retribution, perhaps by attacking nearby U.S. bases and potentially killing U.S. soldiers. That could lead to ever widening escalation, with devastating effects for the region and American entanglement in a war that few Americans want.

  2. Iran saying that they were going to seek legal action against the US summarizes it all nicely. Iran is largely toothless at this point, and both America and Israel can blow anything up with impunity, as they have complete control of the air. Their proxies have all been shattered and they don’t have international allies. There’s not really much they can do at this point.

    Regarding damage – 12 MOPs were dropped on Fordow, and Natanz and Isfahan had 2 MOPs and 30 TLAMs. Given the amount of ordnance, and that FIRMS & Meteosat recorded intense fires, it’s disingenuous to assume that anything other than massive destruction has occurred.

  3. What comes next is terrorist attacks on US bases and even on US soil. Probably the same kind of cheap drones used in the Ukraine defense against the Russian invasion.

    We’ll have our own Oct. 7th moment and then it will be all-out war with Iran. This will bring about the end of Iran’s regime.

    Just my prediction.

  6. It’s just astonishing how insanely bad the calculus of the October 7 attacks was for every aggressing party, but perhaps Iran takes the trophy for being bad at geopolitical math.

  7. Well, we probably want to figure out where Iran’s already enriched uranium is, because we don’t know.

  8. What happens after a thousand psychopaths start pissing on each other’s legs? Peace of course. How dare anyone suggest history repeat and they not escalate.

  9. America /Israel have just started a war with the Middle-Eastern arm of the Russia/NK/China/Iran axis. I don’t think this is over by any stretch of the imagination.

  11. Oh good, can’t wait to see what all the Reddit “experts” have to say!

    –No one, ever

    Seriously, we can speculate all we want, but anyone who tells you that they know how this will play out is either a liar or delusional.

  12. If this doesn’t push Iran to go nuclear in a long run, I don’t know what will. Is the U.S able to bomb Iran for the next 20 years? As a regime, North Korea is far more brutal than Iran, but you don’t see the U.S. dare to bomb them and demand unconditional surrender, do you?

    There are people here declaring total victory right now. “There is no war, it was a special military operation”. Like how do you know the situation in Iran. Are you there inspecting their nuclear facilities? Is the Iranian sunbathing their precious equipment with a sign says ‘right here’? Why wouldn’t they relocate their stuff since the beginning of the war?

    As far as everyone knows, Iran is still pounding Israel, and Israel begins to feel the pain. There is no sign that is going to stop any time soon.

    Regards to what will Iran do to the U.S, the Iranian officials are meeting the Russian right now and perhaps the Chinese. I have a feeling that they want to find a way to hurt the U.S. with more support from major players before they act.

  13. >If this doesn’t push Iran to go nuclear in a long run, I don’t know what will.

    I’m confused by this sentence. Do you think they weren’t already sold on trying to go nuclear before the strike?

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