NEW YORK — Elon Musk promised in 2019 that driverless Tesla “robotaxis” would be on the road “next year,” but it didn’t happen. A year later, he promised to deliver them the next year, but that didn’t happen either.

Last year in January, Musk said, “Next year for sure, we’ll have over a million robotaxis.”

Would you settle for 10 or 12?

Musk appears to be on the verge of making his robotaxi vision a reality with a test run of a small squad of self-driving cabs in Austin, Texas, that began Sunday. Reaching a million may take a year or more, however, though the billionaire should be able to expand the service this year if the Austin demo is a success.

Musk Self Driving Promises

A rider boards a driverless Tesla robotaxi Sunday in Austin, Texas.

Eric Gay, Associated Press

The stakes — and the challenges — couldn’t be higher.

Rival electric vehicle makers with newly competitive models stole market share. As Musk made his promises, rival Waymo was busy deploying driverless taxis in Los Angeles, San Diego, Austin and other cities using a different technology that allowed it to get to market faster. It just completed its 10 millionth paid ride.

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Boycotts related to Musk’s politics tanked Tesla’s sales, and investors are on edge after a $150 billion stock wipeout when Musk picked a social media fight with President Donald Trump, who oversees federal car regulators who could make the robotaxi rollout much more difficult. The stock recovered somewhat after Musk said he regretted some of his remarks.

Tesla shareholders stood by Musk over the years because he defied the odds by building a successful standalone electric vehicle company — and made them a lot of money in the process. A decade ago, Tesla shares traded for about $18. Shares closed Friday at $322.

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Tesla and SpaceX Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk speaks March 9, 2020, at the SATELLITE Conference and Exhibition in Washington.

Susan Walsh, Associated Press

Musk seemed jubilant Sunday morning, posting on his social media platform X (formerly Twitter), “The @Tesla_AI robotaxi launch begins in Austin this afternoon with customers paying a $4.20 flat fee!”

The test began modestly enough. Tesla is remotely monitoring the vehicles and putting a person in the passenger seat in case of trouble. The number of Teslas deployed also was to be small — just 10 or 12 vehicles — and set to only pick up passengers in a limited, geofenced area.

Musk vowed that the service will quickly spread to other cities, eventually reaching hundreds of thousands if not a million vehicles next year.

Some Musk watchers on Wall Street are skeptical.

“How quickly can he expand the fleet?” asks Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA. “We’re talking maybe a dozen vehicles initially. It’s very small.”

Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein says Musk promises too much, too quickly. “When anyone in Austin can download the app and use a robotaxi, that will be a success, but I don’t think that will happen until 2028,” he said. “Testing is going to take a while.”

Musk Self Driving Promises

Torkild Johansen of Denmark takes photos Sunday of a driverless Tesla robotaxi, a ride-booking service, in Austin, Texas.

Eric Gay, Associated Press

Musk’s tendency to push up the stock high with a bit of hyperbole is well known.

In 2018, he told Tesla stockholders he had “funding secured” to buy all their shares at a massive premium and take the company private. But he not only lacked a written commitment from financiers, according to federal stock regulators who fined him, he hadn’t discussed the loan amount or other details with them.

Musk told CNBC in May that Tesla was seeing a “major rebound” in demand. A week later, an auto trade group in Europe announced sales plunged by half.

Musk also drew criticism for allegedly exaggerating the abilities of the system used for its cars, starting with the name. Full Self-Driving is a misnomer — the system still requires drivers to keep their eyes on the road because they may need to intervene and take control at any moment.

Federal highway safety regulators opened an investigation into FSD last year after several accidents, and the Department of Justice conducted its own probe, though its status is not known. Tesla also faced lawsuits over the feature, some resulting in settlements, other dismissed. In one case, a judge ruled that plaintiffs hadn’t proved Musk “knowingly” made false statements.

Musk claims the robotaxis will be running on an improved version of Full Self-Driving and the cabs will be safe.

He also says the service will be able to expand rapidly around the country. His secret weapon: Millions of Tesla owners now on the roads. He says an over-the-air software update soon will allow them to turn their cars into driverless cabs and start a side business while stuck at the office for eight hours or on vacation for a week.

Musk Self Driving Promises

A driverless Tesla robotaxi moves through traffic Sunday in Austin, Texas.

Eric Gay, Associated Press

Musk says Tesla also can move fast to deploy taxis because of his decision to rely only on cameras for navigation, unlike Waymo, which supplemented its cameras with lasers and radar.

“Tesla will have, I don’t know,” Musk mused in an conference call with investors, ”99% market share or something ridiculous.” Given Waymo’s head start and potential competition from Amazon and others, dominating the driverless market to that extent could be a reach.

Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst and big Musk fan, says Musk may pull it off because of Tesla’s ability to scale up quickly.

Even skeptics like Morningstar’s Goldstein acknowledge Musk occasionally gets things right — he upended the car industry by getting people to buy expensive electric vehicles, brought his Starlink satellite internet service to rural areas and landed an unmanned SpaceX rocket on a platform back on Earth.

“Maybe his timelines aren’t realistic,” Goldstein said, “but he can develop futuristic technology products.”

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