Iranian official tells CNN Tehran wants the US to “pay” for its attacks “directly”

7 comments

1. Iran is stating that they wish to make the US pay for their attacks and not just hit Israel. Pretty interesting to see what they attempt to do; they could do what they did in 2020 and just strike a US base and aim for empty space like a runway. However, Israeli sources are saying Iran is wanting to coordinate their response so maybe a large one way UAS strike in conjunction with a limited BM strike being the most serious response available to them.

2. Six days ago I wrote this:
   [https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1ldtvow/comment/myb06p6/?context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1ldtvow/comment/myb06p6/?context=3)
   and the negative karma was poured on.

   Sad that people just don’t like reality when it conflicts with their worldview.
   Probably, those people should suck on it, but they’d complain about the taste.

   (edit: 10m later and the -negs are already on it. Welcome to r/geopolitics the home of thin skinned reddit)

3. Honestly, I don’t see Iran being capable of attacking the U.S. directly or causing harm to the U.S. outright. The only potential beyond attacking Israel would be targeting U.S. bases in the Gulf countries or attacking oil production sites and facilities within those countries. However, in my view, attacking Gulf countries would be a reckless act of plunder. These are the only states that have supported diplomacy and de-escalation, and attacking them unprovoked, especially since they haven’t participated in strikes against Iran or allowed the U.S. to use their bases or airspace to attack Iran, would destroy any remaining opportunity for Middle Eastern countries to engage with Iran diplomatically in the foreseeable future. In the long run, I believe it’s a terrible strategy. However, militarily, they have no other way to hurt the United States except through this.

   Closing the Strait of Hormuz is another option, but it could be seen by the Gulf countries as just as damaging, like a direct attack on their nations. It would also anger other major players, especially China and India, who get most of their oil through the Strait. I don’t think Iran can afford to upset China, given how much they depend on China for their oil exports and imports of goods.

4. Iran is big mad that their “Death to Israel” doomsday clock got wiped.

5. So what can they even do? At a certain point they have to prove their bluster or continue to lose any perception of strength domestically or abroad. Do they somehow succeed in producing a terror attack in the mainland US and invite a Bush-era retaliation? Do they just land a few strikes on a US base in Kuwait after a back channel warning and call it a day?

6. I really don’t care what they do. I’m just tired of all the war and death. If that can stop my summer would be a lot better.

7. (Note to all: the following is **pure speculation, theorycrafting, and has nothing to do with reality**)

   What Iran could do is to sit back and prepare.
   Operation Spiderweb (Ukraine’s attack on Russian bomber forces) is scarily easy to replicate in the United States.
   Not only could Iran deliver a massive blow to the American air force and American pride, but the same methods could be used to assassinate pretty much anyone. It’s scary how simple it is. And I seriously doubt US Secret Service is at all prepared for danger posed by AI-guided fiber-optic drones (=don’t emit any signal, can navigate without GPS/etc., with a bit of investment into sat internet, the launch station could be controlled from other side of the planet)

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