Strait of Hormuz: What happens if Iran shuts global oil corridor?

6 comments

1. Nothing will happen because this would effectively anger every single ally Iran still has. You think they’re isolated now wait until China and Russia are annoyed with them.

2. This will be the last resort, but if it does happen is that global trade gets fucky for a bit, lots of Iranian navy personnel will die and things will go slowly back to normal.

3. That seems like a great way to get all of the Arab GCC countries mad.

   Supporting Palestine is one thing, but Iran getting a nuke is a big no for all of the gulf states. And stopping their oil and gas from flowing out is an even bigger no.

   If this comes to pass, how likely is it that Trump will get the Saudis, Emiratis, Kuwaitis and others to bankroll America’s bombing and naval campaign against Iran? That seems like a very Trumpian move to me. He would happily gloat to his domestic audience that “they are paying for it”.

   And as a bonus, Iran would be making everyone mad in the rest of Asia too.

   >The impact could also be outsized for other key Asian economies, which are among the biggest importers, after China. Nearly half India’s crude oil and 60% of its natural gas imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. South Korea reportedly gets 60% of its crude oil through the strait, and Japan nearly three-quarters.

4. If Iran does this it will just isolate them further than they already are.

   China buys the vast majority of Iranian oil and it passes through Hormuz. Russia would also likely take issue with Hormuz becoming an unsafe route.

   Never mind the response it will garner from neighbouring countries in the ME who also rely heavily on passage through Hormuz for their own economies.

   Iran might still do it because they have very little in the way of options right now but doing it will just speed up the end of the regime.

   Be interesting to see the US response though, they might go for a demonstrative response and use a lot of manpower/equipment to incapacitate the Houthis and try and get it reopened quickly.

5. If Iran is dumb enough to FAFO, let them do it. They’ll piss off their allies and will get a lot of their military/civilians killed unnecessarily with the blowback from this. Not like they have capable military assets to defend themselves- all they have is terrorism as a threat. 

6. I think Iran would be bombed out of existence in a way that makes Carthage look like child play. Let‘s be real, the US has decades of global power playing for oil (sorry, of course ”against terrorism“) and despite all the Trumpian ”peace“ rhetoric the neo-cons there use, we all know they are not too stingy to throw a 6 figure bomb on a few tents in their ”fight against terrorism“.

   Maybe I‘m wrong though, it‘s always difficult to predict geopolitics.

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