Ayatollah Khamenei Faces a Nuclear Nightmare

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1. Writing at the *New Statesman*, Research Fellow [Abbas Milani](https://www.hoover.org/profiles/abbas-milani) illustrates the “dire dilemma” Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei now faces. For the Khamenei regime, “To abandon the nuclear programme would be to accept a humiliating defeat, one that would wipe away any political and ideological legitimacy he might have. But to persist in pursuing the nuclear option could bring ruin upon Iran, with catastrophic consequences for the Iranian people and all but certainly end the clerical despotism in Iran.” Milani notes the possibility of the Trump administration’s allowing Iran’s leadership to take a “‘face-saving’ exit” in exchange for the abandonment of Iran’s nuclear enrichment activity—already compromised by Saturday’s American strikes on key nuclear infrastructure sites. Milani reiterates his call for the protection of Iranian civilians and his belief that democratization within Iran, led by the Iranian people, is the only long-term pathway to freedom for Iran’s citizens and “peace and stability in the Middle East.”

2. I just dont see how the regime can abandon its nuclear program and stay in power

   For 50 years the only thing they have accomplished is to build proxy networks, missiles, and this nuclear program. They have offered their people almost nothing else.

   All of these things are now in ruins. Formally renouncing the program will make everyone- hardliners and liberals alike- ask the same question: “what was all this for then?”

   Domestically, their path out of this is incredibly narrow if they capitulate:

   They must either execute an impossible political pivot toward promising their people a focus on economic growth and prosperity ala the Chinese in the 80s and 90s… or focus exclusively on internal security, forget their foreign adventures, become North Korea, and avoid regime collapse through total repression (hard in a country that size)

   Of course if they keep fighting they will probably still lose power soon. 86 year old Khamenei might very well prefer that path, however.

3. Why would they abandon their nuclear program? These strikes literally demonstrated that it’s their only realistic deterrence.

4. Zero enrichment is just a non-stater. After what happened in the Iran/Iraq war Iran will not allow itself to ever depend so much on another state again. Then it was US ammunition, now it would be one of their country’s planned main energy sources that the US could just shut down if Iran is doing something they do not like.

   I don’t think the religious group could control their military any longer if they accept such a deal. Iran could end up like Pakistan in such a scenario. They also need a new deal until October otherwise the old deal is over and Europa will sanction Iran again. But the US needs to give them something like the quoted off-ramp or must support a regime change. It’s kinda a binary choice.

   But on the other side Trump needs a better deal than 2015 which puts himself under enormous pressure. Otherwise people will ask some ugly questions. He maybe thought all those politicians and career diplomats were too weak so he sent his buddy Witkoff to work out new deal but some discussions are just complicated and need time. Especially if both sides don’t trust each other.

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