Analysis and visualization tool: Pivolx. View and play with my analysis at https://www.pivolx.com/analysis-10#stepmc5jmfzjb4ffr

WHO Population Data: https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads?folder=Standard%20Projections&group=Most%20used

Posted by FridayTea22

23 comments

  1. To get those USA figures, there’s going to be a lot of immigration, because they aren’t producing babies sufficient for that.

  2. The dip in India’s population after 2060 looks interesting. Is there any reason to believe why the population of the country starts falling after that?

  3. Demographers are now beginning to believe that 1.4 billion is overstated by at least 100 million or so.

  4. 300,000,000 (million) in population loss for China over 30-40 years will be something. That’s a massive demographic shift never seen before.

    Edit: maybe dont need million but its 300,000,000 people one way or others.

  5. India’s current fertility rate is 2.1 children per woman. That is the rate you need in order to keep the population stable. That fertility rate is expected to drop dramatically over the next several years.

  6. The composition of that 600 million in China will be interesting. The US could very well have a larger workforce and even more births. It is crazy, however, with China going from over double the population of Africa to less than a fifth of the continent.

    Current trends project China having the lowest share of world population its had in like 3000 years.

  7. US fertility rate is low and falling, and they project growth?

  8. I have trouble believing China and the US will have such a similar population rate in 75 years.

  10. The coming implosion of China’s population will collapse not only its social security system, but also the healthcare system as well. What horrifies people is that sometime in the 2100s, China’s median age will max out at about 67. Old people will literally be the majority of people. A total fertility rate of 1, if sustained, causes a country’s population to plummet by 50% every 30 years or so, which is why while China’s population will probably stay above 700 million within this century, it can easily plummet to 350 million by 2130, 175 million by 2160 and 87.5 million by 2190. Its population will plummet back to levels last seen centuries ago and the population pyramid will be completely inverted with 50% of residents over 65 but only 5% are under 18.

  11. I noted the shift a curve for that matter on china. Why such a drop in the next 75 years?

  12. This graph chart greatly overestimates the future population of India while underestimating that of China, which is unlikely to align with future trends.

    In the 21st century, after some type of economic development, with the improvements in women’s level of education, social status and economic independence, every country quickly enters a phase of declining population growth rates, without exception. We can see that the fertility rate in Vietnam, a country that has just begun its rapid economic growth but still has a GDP per capita below $5,000, is also declining rapidly.

    As recently as 2010, the world did not foresee that China’s population would enter negative growth in 15 years. But this is exactly what happened. This pattern applies to India as well. In fact, in some recent posts on r/dataisbeautiful, we’ve already seen reports that average fertility rate among women in India’s most economically developed pradeshs has dropped to 2 (or maybe lower).

    Additionally, please note that China’s land area is 9.6 million sqkm, of which about 5 million sqkm is habitable (excluding deserts, high-altitude plateaus, and rugged mountainous regions). India, on the other hand, has a total area of 3 million sqkm, with habitable areas unlikely to exceed 2.5 million. If the projection in the graph would be true and India’s peak population reaches 1.7 billion, the population density in its main habitable regions would be three times that of China during its population peak. The environmental and ecological pressures caused by such a high population density would not only threaten biodiversity but also be difficult for human society to bear.

    China’s per capita GDP in 2007 was $2,700, equivalent to that of India in 2024. In 2007, China’s total population was 1.32 billion. In the next nearly 20 years, China’s population increased by only 100 million, while per capita income increased 400% to $13,500. It can be reasonably imagined that India will also experience a period of economic growth while a rapid decline in fertility rates in the next 20 years.

  13. China’s population will decline far faster than this because the projection isn’t taking into account political instability caused by a lack of working aged adults

    When there’s a society of old people without enough workers to keep the lights on, we’re going to see a lot of people dying all at once, not sure when the breaking point will be but it’s going to be a precipitous decline when it does happen

  14. I would generally assume overpopulation would hit more of a steady state response going up and down. I’d highly doubt it would just implode like that.

  15. US is currently in the middle of a reawakening, which usually results in higher birthrates and immigration…

  16. I think India will peak at 2050 and total population will drop faster. Most of the country (except for the populous states of UP and Bihar) are below replacement level.

    Even UP is approaching TFR of 2.1. Bihar will take much longer though.

  17. But all three are turning downwards. Concerning.

  18. Is there really any reason to think this will actually happen, though? Sure, population models can predict 20 – 30 years out based on today’s trends, but who’s to say that after that China doesn’t have another baby boom?

  20. Actually there are studies that project that the current population of China has fallen below 1 billion with some analysts saying that it could be around 800 million and that since COVID there are no official numbers that are reliable so no one can tell for sure. They also say that this is the main reason for the upcoming economic collapse that the country is going to suffer in the upcoming years

  21. So, by 2100 Indians would enmass run and capture the Aksai Chin, I would love to live to that day. Yeah, this is the first thing that came to my mind and it was entirely China’s fault to make a relatively friendly country into sworn enemy by betraying like that in 1962.

  22. If worst case senario data is used for China then for its neighbouring East asian countries they would go pretty much extinct and US will be in a lose lose situation to sustain them.

  23. Well it’s still a lot. Iam pretty confident earth ressources will be gone in 50 years

    So … good luck to Indian people i guess

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