12 Days Of War: Takeaways From The Israel-Iran Conflict

https://www.rferl.org/a/israel-iran-ceasefire-analysis-military-nuclear/33453782.html

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2 comments

  1. SS:

    After 12 days of conflict, Israel and Iran have reached a cease-fire, but experts warn it’s fragile. Israel claims major gains, including strikes on key nuclear and military sites, while Iran’s deterrence and prestige have been severely damaged. Despite this, parts of Iran’s nuclear program remain intact, and 400 kg of highly enriched uranium are unaccounted for.

    Analysts say this could push some in Tehran toward pursuing nuclear weapons, though doubts remain about Iran’s capacity to do so. The fighting may have paused, but the core risks — nuclear escalation, instability, and mistrust — persist.

  2. In Israel’s Six day war (1967), Israel also started the war with a preemptive strike that destroyed the air forces, air defense and key parts of the military of Arab countries. It ended with a ceasefire quickly, with major Israel land gains, and the beginning of the Palestinian Territories occupation.

    Then in 1973, Egypt and Syria tried to regain their honor and lands, and attacked by surprise in Yom Kippur. This was significantly more deadly to Israel, but Israel did prevail, which eventually led to the Egypt – Israel peace in return for returning all the lands except for Gaza back to Egypt. Syria did not agree to normalize in return to the Golan heights, and we can see where the “road not taken” has led them to.

    If history rhymes, expect Iran to invest heavily in a retaliation down the road. I don’t know if they’ll succeed in achieving nukes, but even just attacking with tens of thousands of rockets is existential. in the current conflict, Iran sent around 500 rockets, of which roughly 50 landed after depleting a big chunk of Israel and US’s anti-missile defense. If Iran manages to send barrages of thousands of rockets, they could destroy any target they want in Israel.

    Hopefully, Iran somehow stops its obsession with destroying Israel and the US, and things calm down. But right now there is no indication that’s the direction.

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