The White House is in the process of making its closing argument for President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” and it involves some eye-popping projections for the US economy that don’t line up with predictions of independent economists.
How eye-popping? Try economic growth of 4.9% in the short term and up to $11.1 trillion in deficit reduction over the next decade if the Senate bill is passed and Trump’s agenda is enacted.
“Those are very big numbers,” acknowledged Council of Economic Advisers chair Stephen Miran on a call with reporters as he laid out a 27-page report from his group.
That report was part of a push from the White House this week as the Senate debates the bill to push some wary Republicans to yes.
It will continue Thursday afternoon with a “One, Big, Beautiful Event” scheduled for 4 pm ET at the White House where the president is expected to apply direct political pressure to get the bill done in the coming weeks.
Still, the White House’s economic findings were immediately met with skepticism by economists who have come to very different conclusions.
The report concludes that Trump’s entire “suite” of policies — from the bill itself to unilateral deregulation efforts to tariffs — could lead, in Miran’s words, to “very material increases in GDP growth, very material increases in investment activity, and very material increases in real wages and take-home pay.”
Stephen Miran is the chairman of Donald Trump’s Council of Economic Advisors. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) · ASSOCIATED PRESS
The case is essentially that certain provisions in the bill — especially deductions for businesses around things like research and development — will lead to a spike in corporate investment that will then fuel 4.6% to 4.9% in additional GDP growth over the next four years.
It is an aggressive projection, to say the least. For context, a recent Tax Foundation estimate pegged that figure at 1.1%.
But that outsized 4%+ growth will then fuel, the White House says, a reduction in federal deficits by roughly $8.5 trillion-$11.1 trillion over the standard 10-year budget window. That would lead to thousands of dollars in additional income for a typical family and stabilize America’s debt-to-GDP ratio, according to the report.
The rosy predictions from the White House were immediately slammed by a range of economists.
“Well I guess if you are going to make stuff up, go big or go home,” offered former Democratic Congresswoman Carolyn Bourdeaux.
“No credible economist believes this bill is going to reduce the deficit,” she added, noting that “it adds $3+ trillion.” Bourdeaux currently runs the Concord Coalition, a group focused on the national debt.
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