Cost of living in No.10 – POLITICO

Good afternoon. This is Emilio Casalicchio.

FRIDAY CHEAT SHEET

— The government will spend the weekend selling its big benefits climbdown to wavering rebels.

— Keir Starmer said the new package is the “right balance” and that it’s now “common sense” to pass the bill.

— But the PM still faces a huge rebellion when his proposed legislation is voted on next week.

— Starmer admitted he regrets his controversial “island of strangers” comments about migration.

— SCOOP: Supermarkets could be forced to ensure shoppers swap fattening items for healthier choices.

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TOP OF THE NEWSLIST

COST OF LIVING IN NO.10: Keir Starmer appears to have saved his welfare bill (and as such his premiership) — but only by swallowing a £3 billion-odd hit to the public finances. The government remains very much on edge and still faces a whopping rebellion on its controversial plans next week.

Present but not involved: Cabinet ministers and whips with tickets to Glastonbury will need to forfeit the festival or cower in their tents on the phone selling the new compromise plan to wavering backbenchers, with plenty of MPs taking the weekend to consider their positions.

The sales pitch: In a clip this afternoon, Starmer said following “powerful representations” (not “noises off”) from backbenchers, the government has “struck the right balance and it’s common sense that we can now get on with it.” He said the package still delivers on promised reform of the welfare regime despite “adjustments.” In a separate clip, Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said the government is “in a good place now.”

How it’s landing: Former leading rebel Meg Hillier is now expected to ditch the wrecking amendment almost 130 MPs signed up to before she (and others) brokered a deal with Downing Street to cancel the PIP and health-related Universal Credit cuts for existing claimants. But numerous MPs Playbook PM has spoken to are still vowing to vote against the bill at second reading on Tuesday because all future claimants will be affected. Other MPs are still on the fence.

On the fence: Lots of backbenchers are seeking clarification on the compromise plan (set out in Playbook this morning) before deciding how to vote, and many are waiting to see a written statement on Monday detailing the changes, alongside the terms of reference for the review led by welfare minister Stephen Timms into how the cuts for claimants from late 2026 will be implemented. Even uncertain MPs who do hold their noses and vote for the bill at second reading are eager to see the text of the promised government amendment for the next stage of voting on July 9.

Helping hands: The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (a leading campaign group on this issue) appears to think the new plan could be passable, noting the government has “listened” and must “make good” on its pledges, despite also accepting future claimants will still face “further hardship.” Its statement is a good précis of what lots of MPs are thinking. Experts are meanwhile arguing the “two-tier” result of the change is normal when tweaks are made to the welfare regime, despite concerns (see Sienna Rogers’ reporting for PolHome) that it might not be legal.

Off the fence: Some former rebels are falling in with Hillier and declaring the compromises promised will allow them to vote for the bill next week. It seems the Timms review is a crucial element, allowing MPs and disability groups to feed into the next stage of the process (despite charities still urging the Commons to reject the bill.) Playbook PM has even heard that some ex-rebels feel the government has been too generous and were surprised Downing Street went as far as it did on the compromise.

Bear in mind, though: There were MPs who never signed the wrecking amendment but who were planning to vote for it next week. So it’s not a simple process of taking 127 named rebels and counting down until the number falls below the all-important 83 government defeat mark.

Best guesses: Labour MP Cat Eccles (who was one of the amendment signatories) told the Radio 4’s World at One show that around 50 to 60 Labour MPs are still opposed to the bill and others are still feeling “uncomfortable” so could also vote against it. She said some colleagues (including herself) “still feel that it’s not OK” and believe “we should still be pressing pause and looking at this again.”

On a similar note: Sky’s Amanda Akass hears a 50-strong WhatsApp group has been created among Labour MPs who will still vote against the bill. The Times’ Max Kendix says to watch out for another reasoned amendment of the true hardcore.

All of which suggests … the government will win the second reading vote but with a huge rebellion from the Labour benches that will blow a further hole in Starmer’s authority. A cohort of the left were never going to vote for the bill (see Nadia Whittome touring broadcast studios this morning) but it’s on the government to win over the huge pool of waverers and reduce the Starmer authority hole.

And there are other holes this process has blown: The Resolution Foundation reckons the U-turn for existing claimants will cost Chancellor Rachel Reeves up to £3.2 billion a year in 2029/30. And that’s on top of the £1.25 billion winter fuel U-turn earlier this month. These are unfunded commitments. The Paul Johnson “tax rises are coming” klaxon was sounded.

Or … is there a loophole option? Downing Street would not discuss possible tax rises (natch) while insisting there will be no “permanent” increase in borrowing to fund the U-turns. Which appears to leave short-term borrowing open. And seeing as the much-heralded fiscal rules hinge on what the numbers look like in the final year of a multi-year forecast, these things are eminently game-able. Indeed, they are perma-gamed.

Back to the political management: Rebels are hoping this whole experience will have taught the PM and Downing Street to stop ignoring backbenchers. “There’s huge talent, experience and knowledge in parliament, and it’s important it’s better listened to, and I think that message has landed,” Hillier told Radio 4. Others laughed after hearing Health Minister Stephen Kinnock tell the same station the debacle had been “a positive and constructive process.”

This is fine: A spokesperson for the PM told reporters this afternoon the U-turn was normal vibes. “It’s not unusual as part of the parliamentary process to introduce a bill, have a debate about the principles and then look at how those are implemented,” they said.

But there is a deeper issue here: Making MPs eat sh*t then backing down has a corrosive effect on leadership. One Labour MP who did not sign the wrecking amendment told Playbook PM backbenchers who have “batted for the PM” in the tea rooms and on the media ahead of the three recent U-turns but do not get government roles or wins for their areas “are self-organizing about what the future looks like for them including key demands.”

Gulp: The same person said “whips have been told directly by these people they won’t be so easy to be counted on in future” after the “massive” climbdown.

Here’s an idea: Starmer could begin his rebuilding of relations with his troops by … meeting all his MPs. Kendix at the Times notes at least five have never met the PM after almost 12 months in Westminster.

Not helping: Just to wind Labour MPs up even more, the PM admitted he “deeply regrets” warning Britain could become an “island of strangers” if immigration is not managed. In an interview for the Observer with his biographer Tom Baldwin, the PM said he was shaken up after the firebombing at his London home (while his sister-in-law was in the building) and said he did not read the speech properly before delivering it.

Another U-turn: No.10 previously stressed, amid outrage from Labour backbenchers in the wake of the speech, that the whole thing was not a reference to Enoch Powell, and insisted the PM does not regret the wording after a New Statesman interview suggested he does. But Starmer told Baldwin: “I wouldn’t have used those words if I had known they were, or even would be interpreted as an echo of Powell.”

Regardless: The interview with Baldwin is well worth a read and includes a few other news lines: That Starmer regrets his Rose Garden speech about things getting worse before getting better because it “squeezed the hope” out of the nation … that he regrets hiring Sue Gray … and that during January he made multiple trips to Leeds to clear out his late brother’s house. “The previous day I had been taking calls on the future of European security and there I was, on my hands and knees with a brush scrubbing out the back of the bog,” he said. “That’s quite a good leveler.”

HEALTH OF THE NATION

SCOOP — AISLE MAKE BRITAIN THIN: Supermarkets could be forced to ensure shoppers swap fattening items for healthier choices as part of a coming blueprint aimed at saving the health service.

The key stuff: The 10-Year Health Plan (coming next week) is expected to include a proposal for the biggest shops to meet targets on incentivizing behavioral change, all aimed at tackling obesity. Under proposals still being signed off, supermarkets would need to produce data showing customers are swapping more fattening items such as white bread, golden potatoes and pork sausages for the likes of wholemeal bread, sweet potatoes and chicken sausages.

Steering off the fat-berg: Health Secretary Wes Streeting has talked up preventative measures as a route to ease pressure on the NHS, with obese Brits one of the biggest long-term costs to the service. Think tank Nesta, which developed the idea, reckons encouraging people with excess weight to eat 80 calories less per day could cut obesity prevalence by around 23 percent, and argues mandatory targets are the only way to make it happen.

Diet plan: Shops would choose how to meet government-approved nutrient score targets, via promotions, product placements and more, and could be fined for not sharing the data, under the proposals. Once the new data regime is in place, ministers could decide whether to take the plan further and fine supermarkets for failing to hit their nutrient targets.

Behind the scenes: Labour MPs have been pushing the plan onto Streeting, who is said to be on board with the idea that supermarkets should ensure a basket of goods is better balanced. “We must act to reduce obesity and there is now very good evidence that regulation around food bought in supermarkets can create a healthy balance with fair pricing and reduce ultra processed foods,” Labour MP (and GP) Simon Opher tells Playbook PM. The big retailers have also been briefed on the plans and are expected to argue that the entire food sector, including restaurants, should be covered, to avoid singling out one sector. Some mention of the idea is set to appear in the NHS blueprint next week, with further details in the food strategy in the coming weeks or months. Ministers are still agreeing the specifics.

The official line: A Department for Health spokesperson refused to comment on speculation but said the 10-Year Health Plan “will set out how we will deliver the fundamental reform required to rebuild the NHS.”

Further reading: Health Service Journal has seen a draft of the NHS strategy and reports that the strongest foundation trusts will get to manage budgets for the health and care of a designated population, while the NHS app will be expected to act as an AI GP, dealing with numerous aspects of patient care. But the HSJ says the “current draft of the 10-Year Health Plan approaches a level of over-claiming that would make Donald Trump blush.”

Watch this space: The HSJ reckons the plan will be published in 10 days and that lead DHSC non-executive director and former health secretary, Alan Milburn, is writing a final chapter, which will focus on delivery. POLITICO’s Dan Bloom hears the plan could appear next Thursday as part of a wider health week.

DRIVETIME DEBRIEF

ALL BRIZE: Counter-terror police arrested four people in relation to the vandalism of RAF planes at Brize Norton. Two men and two women were arrested in Berkshire after protest group Palestine Action broke into the Oxfordshire airbase and sprayed planes with paint. The BBC has a full writeup.

THE FATTAH OF THE MATTER: Keir Starmer last night spoke to his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and “raised the case of British national Alaa Abd El-Fattah and again pressed for his release so that he can be reunited with his family,” according to a Downing Street readout. No mention of whether the PM threatened to use Britain’s £4 billion annual trade with Egypt as “leverage” in the case nor whether the U.K. could revoke Whitehall access for the Egyptian ambassador to London.

Reminder: Foreign Secretary David Lammy urged both while in opposition. See here and here.

SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS

SHOOT TO THRILL: Let’s be honest, “Kemi Badenoch ‘broke Army cadet rules’ with assault rifle photo shoot” was probably not the headline the Tory leader was after with this crop of caption-worthy snaps doing the rounds on X. More from the Express’s Christian Calgie here.

POLLING SUCKS: Labour is in the lead among voters with a robot vacuum, pollster Luke Tryl highlighted on X.

BEYOND THE M25

IN AMERICA: U.S. President Donald Trump has hailed a “giant win” after the Supreme Court issued a ruling that will curb court power to block his executive orders. Trump has been speaking at the White House over the past hour. POLITICO has a liveblog.

IN IRAN: The Iranian foreign minister admitted “excessive and serious” damage to the nation’s nuclear sites had taken place as a result of U.S. and Israeli bombing. The BBC has a writeup.

IN GAZA: The boss of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) hit out at UN figures on the number of people killed at aid hubs in the region. Sky News has a writeup.

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TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND

LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) is leading on the sentencing of the Hainault sword attacker, as it ITV Evening News (6.30 p.m.) …Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) leads on the No. 10 welfare U-turn, including an interview with Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan.

BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): IFS boss Paul Johnson … Keir Starmer biographer Tom Baldwin.

News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Labour MP Bell Ribeiro-Addy … President of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly Madeleine Moon … UN humanitarian affairs spokesperson Olga Cherevko.

Drive with Cathy Newman (Times Radio, 5 p.m.): Former Downing Street aide Luke Sullivan … Keir Starmer biographer Tom Baldwin … former Marco Rubio aide Gregg Nunziata … former Labour MP Jon Ashworth … former Conservative MP Penny Mordaunt … former Donald Trump aide John Bolton … Ukrainian MP Kira Rudik.

Any Questions (Radio 4, 8 p.m.): Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury James Murray … Tory peer Eleanor Laing … the Times’ Tom Newton Dunn … the Guardian’s Polly Toynbee.

TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Louis O’Brien.

REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): The i Paper’s Jane Merrick and broadcaster Lucy Beresford … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Mirror’s Susie Boniface and commentator Tim Montgomerie.

YOUR WEEKEND IN POLITICS

ACROSS THE BORDER: The Welsh Labour conference is running through the weekend, with an expected appearance from Keir Starmer. Full agenda here.

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Armed Forces day, among other things. There’s a long way to go.

WEEKEND MEDIA ROUND

Peter Cardwell on Talk (10 a.m. Saturday): Former DWP adviser Tom Pollard … Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Helen Whately.

Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg (BBC One, 9 a.m. on Sunday): Health Secretary Wes Streeting … Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Helen Whately.

The Camilla Tominey Show (GB News, 9.30 a.m. on Sunday): Health Secretary Wes Streeting … Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Helen Whately … former U.K. ambassador to Iran Nicholas Hopton … columnist Sarah Vine.

Peter Cardwell on Talk (10 a.m. Sunday): Health Secretary Wes Streeting … Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Helen Whately.

Sunday Morning with Adam Boulton (Times Radio, 10 a.m. on Sunday): Health Secretary Wes Streeting.

Ayesha Hazarika with Times Radio Drive (Times Radio, 4 p.m. on Sunday): Labour MP Kim Johnson … Conservative MP Joe Robertson … Lib Dem MP Helen Maguire.

ANY OTHER BUSINESS

PLAYBOOK BACK PAGES: Football-mad Keir Starmer has been lamenting to pals that his five-a-side opponents have been going soft on him for fear of harming the PM and putting him out of action, according to Jack Blackburn in the Times.

FIXING BROKEN BRITAIN ONE BOG AT A TIME: In another great one from Jack, Commons leader Lucy Powell has won plaudits from female colleagues for increasing the number of cubicles in the women’s loos in the Aye lobby of the House of Commons, meaning those who need to pop in for a Douglas Hurd need not wait. The bogs in question have been christened “Lucy’s loos.”

On the subject of politics and toilets: The political party that pledges to re-open public toilets in Britain (and create lots of new ones) would win significant support among women, according to Playbook PM’s wife.

NEW GIG: Air Chief Marshal Richard Knighton will take over as chief of the defence staff (head of the entire armed forces) from September.

SO LONG, FAREWELL: American scientist Ilan Gur, boss of moonshot research office ARIA, announced he is stepping down. Writeup for POLITICO Pro Tech UK subscribers here.

NOW HIRING: The Economist is advertising for a journalism internship paid £2,500 a month.

WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: On his Substack, political academic Ben Ansell goes full charts on what people think about immigration.

ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On 27 June, 2007 Tony Blair stood down as Labour prime minister and his Chancellor Gordon Brown took over. On the same day in 2024, then-U.S. President Joe Biden performed terribly against Donald Trump in the first presidential debate, which led to Biden dropping out of the race the following month.

WRITING SUNDAY CRUNCH: Noah Keate.

WRITING PLAYBOOK MONDAY MORNING: Sam Blewett.

THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.

Cost of living in No.10 – POLITICO

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