India’s export of petroleum products in June declined by almost 10% to 1.19 million barrels per day (bpd), from 1.32 million bpd in May, according to data from global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler. On an year-on-year basis too, exports declined by 3.7% from 1.24 million barrels in June 2024.
UAE, Singapore, and Australia emerged as the top destinations for the country’s petroleum products exports in June.
Exports to the UAE rose to 115,944 bpd from 81,673 bpd in May, exports to Australia increased to 70,746 bpd from 50,500 bpd, and exports to Europe surged to 360,000 bpd, nearly doubling from 60,474 bpd. While flows to Singapore declined by 42% on-month, the overall export basket remained geographically diversified.
India primarily supplies petroleum products to countries in Europe and Asia. The country has emerged as a major fuel supplier to Europe in the past few months after European countries started boycotting Russian supplies post its invasion of Ukraine. Kpler estimates India’s refined product exports to stay resilient in the near-future.
“Looking forward, refinery utilisation remains elevated, though not at peak, as key exporters like MRPL undergo maintenance. If current crude intake levels are sustained, India is well-positioned to maintain its strong export momentum, particularly to demand centers across Southeast Asia, Europe, the US, and Australia. That said, the outlook remains contingent on product margin strength and unplanned disruptions, with India’s product trade flows continuing to be shaped by operational agility and global price signals,” Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining and modeling, Kpler, said.
A more substantial increase in crude processing is expected toward late 2025 or into 2026, as several brownfield expansions currently underway—at Koyali, Barauni, and Panipat— begin to come online.
The country exports a variety of goods via the Red Sea, including petroleum products. However, the traffic diversion from the Red Sea and around the Cape of Good Hope, owing to geopolitical tensions over the region, has added ten days to Asia-Europe journeys while also increasing fuel costs, the government had earlier said.
Further, rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia has posed a threat to India’s energy supplies, exposing it to price shocks, given its heavy reliance on crude oil imports and exports of refined oil products.
The country’s refined oil products exports to the US also declined to 54,309 bpd in June from 84,099 bpd in May. The two countries have recently agreed to strengthen their energy ties and trade.
While the US imposed reciprocal tariffs of 26% on India, some goods including energy and other certain minerals have been exempted from the tariffs. The exemptions come as a relief to the energy markets with Indian exports of petroleum products likely to witness a muted impact, industry players say.
Ritolia pointed out that Indian refiners must continue to prioritise scenario planning, import flexibility, and energy diplomacy to safeguard long-term supply security.