PORTLAND, Ore. (KATU) — Gas prices in Oregon and across the United States are on the rise, driven by recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The national average for regular gasoline increased by six cents to $3.22 per gallon, while Oregon’s average rose by seven cents to $4.05 per gallon, according to AAA Oregon/Idaho.

Marie Dodds, public affairs director for AAA Oregon/Idaho, said, “If there are no disruptions in global crude oil supplies, crude prices may settle down, which in turn would help ease climbing gas prices. But with the volatility in crude prices, plus the seasonal increases in demand for gas, we’ll likely see gas prices climb in the short term.”

The recent strikes between Israel and Iran, along with the U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, have caused fluctuations in crude oil prices. However, a ceasefire between Israel and Iran has led to a slight drop in oil prices as markets assess the potential impacts on global oil supplies.

Dodds also noted that Iran’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for ships carrying about 20% of global oil supplies, could lead to a rise in crude prices if realized.

As the Independence Day holiday approaches, AAA anticipates record-breaking travel, with 72.2 million Americans, including 875,000 Oregonians, expected to travel 50 miles or more from home. This marks a 2.4% increase compared to last year and a 10.7% increase from 2019. “By far and away, people are going by car,” Dodds said, adding that about 89% of travelers will drive to their destinations. Air travel is also seeing a rise, with new records anticipated for both car and air travel.

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The Oregon average for regular gas began the year at $3.45 per gallon and has reached its highest price of the year at $4.08 last week. Meanwhile, the national average started at $3.06 per gallon and is currently at $3.22.

Oregon is one of 47 states experiencing higher gas prices compared to a week ago, with California having the most expensive gas in the nation at $4.65 per gallon. Mississippi and Oklahoma have the cheapest gas, at $2.74 and $2.83 per gallon, respectively.

The West Coast region continues to have the most expensive pump prices in the nation, with Oregon ranking fourth. The region’s high prices are attributed to tight supplies, high transportation costs, and environmental programs that add to production, storage, and distribution costs.

Dodds expressed cautious optimism about gas prices stabilizing. “If crude remains now back into that mid $60 per barrel range, we should see gas prices settle down as well,” she said. However, she warned that the situation in the Middle East remains volatile, which could impact prices.

As demand typically increases over the summer, refineries are producing ample gasoline. “We expect that demand will increase over the summer,” Dodds said. “Refineries crank out plenty of product this time of year.”

A study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that high gasoline prices encourage work and offer a triple benefit of lowering fuel consumption, decreasing pollution, and acting as an incentive for people to work “at a more socially optimal level.” However, a different study by the Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center in 2019 found that increasing gas taxes hits low-income households the hardest.

The last time the federal government raised the gasoline tax was in 1993.

Crude oil prices, a major factor in gasoline costs, have been volatile due to geopolitical events and economic uncertainty. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that crude oil production in the U.S. remains near record highs, with production steady at 13.43 million barrels per day.

Finally, Dodds urged travelers to ensure their vehicles are road-trip ready, as AAA expects to assist more than 700,000 people nationwide and over 7,000 in Oregon, with dead batteries being the most common issue. “At least check your battery before you pack the family and the dog in the car,” she advised.

Real-time gas price updates can be found on the AAA website.