Executive Summary
This June 2025 report on geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Caucasus focuses on rising tensions, key factors, and future predictions. This helps stakeholders understand emerging threats, thus informing policy, security, and investment decisions.
Israeli-Iranian conflict sharply escalated Middle East fragmentation in June 2025. Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites prompted Iranian missile and drone retaliation. US attacks on Iranian sites broadened the conflict, threatening global energy supplies. Despite a truce, the incident shows regional instability, Israel’s bolder actions, and Iran’s capability to respond. These developments reinforce the enduring risk of renewed hostilities and proxy escalation, with potential spillover into maritime security and global energy supply chains.
Beyond the core conflict, the resurgence of terrorism compounded regional instability in Syria and strategic recalibrations in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
Islamic State’s deadly attack in eastern Syria, coupled with renewed propaganda, reveals persistent jihadist operational capacity and weak governance. Logistical concerns from Middle Eastern unrest prompted Central Asian engagement with Europe and China. Georgian and Armenian political repression intersected with geopolitical manoeuvring, including Yerevan’s Western shift.
Geopolitical competition continues despite a pause in direct conflict, demanding careful planning.
Key Takeaways
Strategic Escalation and Retaliation Dynamics. Tel Aviv’s pre-emptive strikes and Tehran’s retaliation altered regional military strategy, creating a new escalation ladder with global implications.
Enduring Jihadist Threat in Fragmented States. The terrorist attack in Syria highlights the Islamic State’s ongoing influence in unstable regions.
Multipolar Competition and Internal Fragility. Geopolitical competition and domestic instability complicate Central Asian and Caucasian stabilisation.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Key Takeaways
Middle East – Escalation and Fragmentation
Israeli-Iranian Armed Confrontation
The Resurgence of Terrorism in Syria
Central Asia – Balancing Regional Interests
Geopolitical Reverberations from the Middle East
International Engagement and Regional Consolidation
The Caucasus – Strategic Realignments and Domestic Fractures
Political Repression and Democratic Reversal
Geopolitical Competition and Strategic Reorientation.
Conclusion and Outlook
Sources
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