Syria’s refugees: the obstacles to returning home

In the six months since Bashar al-Assad was deposed as the country’s dictator, refugees have been returning in their thousands to Syria.

Over the course of the nearly 15-year civil war, more than 13.5 million Syrians were displaced from their homes, with most finding refuge in neighbouring countries, including Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan.

A steadily climbing number are now making their way back to their homeland but the life that awaits them in Syria is still rife with difficulty because of the widespread destruction caused by the war.

How many refugees have returned to Syria?

According to the UNHCR, over two million people have returned to their areas of origin – a total that includes 1.5 million internally displaced people and about 600,000 from Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan.

Since the fall of Assad, Turkish authorities had been overseeing between 1,300 and 1,400 daily border crossings, said the Daily Sabah, but now crossings are reaching 2,500 a day as more and more families return home.

Among the nearly one million Syrian refugees in Europe (mainly in Sweden and Germany), there has been little movement, although some EU countries have made moves to encourage it – notably Denmark, which has revoked some Syrian refugees’ right to protection.

Is there pressure on Syrians to return home?

Most returning refugees are doing so voluntarily. However, “the motivation for return are, in most cases, shaped less by pull factors in Syria and more by push factors in host countries”, said the Atlantic Council.

Many of those in Lebanon who returned even before the fall of the Assad regime did so because of the mounting conflict between Israel and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah. The Lebanese government has also planned a rollout of “financial incentives” to convince more refugees to return, said The New Arab. Those who choose an “organised return” will be “provided with transportation, along with a one-off payment of $100”.

In Turkey, “domestic political pressure and varying degrees of coercion” lay behind thousands of returns in the past nine years, said the Atlantic Council – although the most recent people to return are more likely to be doing so of their own accord.

There has been less pressure in Jordan, from where returns have always mostly been voluntary.

Is it safe to return to Syria?

While widespread fighting has subsided, there is still continuing violence in Syria. In the north, there are pockets of fighting between Turkey-based groups and the Syrian Defence Forces, while there have been incidences of violence against Alawites, the ethnic group closely associated with Assad.

There have also been Israeli airstrikes in southern Syria, around the bordering regions of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Israel launched numerous attacks after Assad was deposed, taking advantage of the situation to destroy a number of Syrian military assets.

What are the other obstacles?

Fighting aside, the biggest obstacle to the mass return of refugees remains the devastation of Syria’s cities and infrastructure, and limited access to shelter and electricity.

Though most Syrians say they intend to return, a UNHCR poll earlier this year suggested that housing, safety, lack of services and economic hardship were the key reasons many do not plan to return in the next 12 months.

The Syrian government hopes Western countries can help with the multi-billion rebuilding costs. The US and the EU have already agreed to lift sanctions to allow rebuilding to begin in earnest.

For some Syrian refugees, though, return is not on their wishlist. They may have spent the best part of 10 years living elsewhere and building new lives. And, for families with children who have been born and raised so far away from Syria, there is even less incentive to return, particularly given the ongoing instability and poor living conditions.