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So they did it: by 2040, the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions should be no more than a tenth of what they were in 1990. Or to put it another way, less than a sixth of what they are right now.
It’s easy to grow complacent – cynical, even – about climate action at the political level.
Anyone who was at the COP29 climate conference in Baku last year – as I was – will have sensed the futility of governments wrangling over what seem like pennies, given what’s at stake. Added to which the US, which had already ramped up oil and gas production to world record levels under the Biden administration, has pulled out of the Paris Agreement.
But without the luxury of oil and gas reserves, Europe is now asking if it can afford to replace gas from the east with gas from the leaky fracking fields of America. The proposed 2040 target implies a more profound choice: one between import dependency and missing the target, or accelerating the green transition.
Seventeen years after Europe’s first emissions reduction target was set in law, the appetite for fossil fuels remains high, thanks to the failure to insulate homes, switch heat pumps for gas boilers, or halt the rise of emissions from road transport.
The scale of investment now needed is beyond any New Deal or Marshall Plan, or the bank bailouts that followed the 2008 financial crisis.
It took a war with real bullets for Europe’s champion of frugality to tear off its self-imposed fiscal straightjacket. Will that logic – coupled with a pooling of European debt, which has only ever happened in the face of a global pandemic – be replicated to reach the 90% target?
The fossil fuel industry will have to back up its talk of “blue” hydrogen and sequestering billions of tonnes of CO2 underground with serious investment of its own. The greening of the financial system will have to be accelerated, and questions may have to be asked about the pursuit of shareholder value, boardroom bonuses and GDP growth.
There is, of course, a risk that progress will be hampered by entrenched political ideologies. For the populist right – and increasingly parties on the traditional conservative centre – positions against climate action are part of a hymn sheet that includes opposition to immigration, culture wars on issues like sexuality, and asserting motorists’ right to monopolise city streets.
These issues need to be dealt with separately. Progress will also require greens and left-wingers to reach across the political divide – and perhaps ask themselves why they have lost much of their traditional voter base to the right.
Plenty of public and political figures in Europe still claim that climate change is – as Trump would have it – bullshit. Kurt Wilders’ Freedom Party won the Dutch election after dismissing climate action as “unaffordable madness”.
The disingenuous polemics and spin will have to stop, and a certain gravitas must be injected back into politics.
The Roundup
2040 climate targets revealed – As expected, the Commission has settled on a proposal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to 1990 levels. But critics highlighted a lack of ambition as carbon credits allow governments to outsource emissions cuts.
Resistance to regional funding changes – Fourteen EU countries want “a stand-alone Cohesion Policy” to be preserved in the EU’s next budget, as the Commission prepares to unveil its proposal for the next long-term budget.
Von der Flyin’ – The Commission President took 16 private jet trips in 2024, drawing criticism from opponents.
Across Europe
Defusing New Caledonia discontent – Talks about a shared vision for the archipelago’s future are being held in Paris, more than a year after deadly riots plunged the overseas territory into crisis.
Where energy interests and migrant crossings intersect – Greece is facing a sharp spike in migrant arrivals from Libya just as Ankara and Tripoli step up energy exploration near Crete – fuelling fears of geopolitical coercion and escalating tensions in the eastern Mediterranean.
Poland, pharma, promotion – The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) has delivered a landmark judgment, ruling that Poland’s longstanding ban on pharmacy advertising violates EU law.