Yesterday, POLITICO broke that the Pentagon paused some shipments of ammo to Ukraine. The decision, driven by the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, is claimed by DoD to be in response to concerns about their own stockpiles.

Is that true? No. It is not.

Department of Defense stocks of a wide variety of munitions are undoubtedly depleted due to the War in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East, but the devil is always in the details. POLITICO reports that the pause has impacted both deliveries under PDA & USAI.

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PDA (Presidential Drawdown Authority) is the mechanism for delivery of defense articles to Ukraine from DoD stocks. USAI (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative) allows for the procurement of defense articles from industry or partner countries.

Deliveries from past Drawdowns authorized by the Biden Admin have long been expected to conclude this summer. Sec Def Hegseth recently stated that they are currently executing on PDAs #71-74, implying that previous PDA execute orders have been completed.

Deliveries from USAI, if allowed to proceed unmolested, would continue for years to come. As of December, there was still $10 billion in committed funding that was still not obligated (put on contract). I'd be surprised if this has substantially changed since then.

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We now come to what specific munitions have been held up due to these supposed concerns about the DoD's own depleted inventory levels. The weapons are sitting in Poland, and NPR has acquired an exact list of whats being held back.

92 AIM-7 Sparrow missiles
30 PAC-3 MSEs
8496 155mm rounds
142 AGM-114 Hellfire missiles
252 GMLRS
25 Stinger missiles
125 AT-4 recoilless anti-tank guns

This is a very modest list of ammunition; nothing that is going to compromise the DoD's own readiness. AIM-7 in particular is scarcely used by US fighter aircraft, if at all. MSE was not included in PDAs 71-74, meaning it is coming via USAI and not US stocks.

Hellfire, which was not previously known to be provided to Ukraine by the US, has not been procured since 2023/2024 due to inventory requirements being met. The only item on the list that is likely having an impact on inventory requirements are the 252 GMLRS.

GMLRS is interesting because there have been anecdotes from Ukraine observing a recent increase in GMLRS fire missions. This is likely due to the first lot of contracted GMLRS via USAI being delivered this year. That first lot (FY23) is scheduled to conclude next month.

With Lockheed Martin producing 14,000 GMLRS per year, the US Army can afford to give up 250 more from their inventory now; assuming that all of them are from inventory, and not a mix of both PDA & new production from USAI.

This decision is just another example of Trump Admin officials actively working against the President's own agenda. At the NATO summit he pledged to work on sourcing additional PATRIOT assets for Ukraine, and scored a big win with the Alliance adopting the 5% target.

Any delay to the delivery of what has previously been promised to Ukraine is going to impact confidence in the United States as a supplier of arms to allies & partners. With the OMB sabotaging Trump's desire to see a strong military, the US needs those arms sales badly.

This is all beyond Hegseth's comprehension though. Whereas Bridge and Vought are malicious actors, deliberately sabotaging both Ukraine and the entire Department of Defense under false pretenses. This isn't about the US' own readiness, its about harming Ukraine.

One important detail in POLITICO's piece that has gone overlooked is this:

"The drawdowns from current stockpiles have continued under the Trump administration, which has been using up the last of the $61 billion in funding to replenish U.S. stocks of weapons"

There is no evidence that the Trump Admin has committed any of the $5.2 billion in PDA replacement funding that remained as of December. The Pentagon Comptroller has only published 1 technical correction to previous reprogramming actions since January 20.

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If there is such concern about the Department giving too much ammo to Ukraine, why are they not using the $5 billion sitting on the shelf to fix that problem? Moreover, why haven't they asked for more money?

The DoD is still actually tens of billions of dollars in the hole on Ukraine replacement requirements. The Biden Admin never requested enough money for that purpose, so even if the Trump Admin doesn't send 1 new bullet, they need to ask Congress for more money.

But again, the civilian leadership at the DoD doesn't care about this. They aren't interested in fixing the actual problems. They are only making things worse for themselves, Ukraine, and all of the US' other allies. We can only hope that Bridge and Hegseth are overruled.

Source

by abitStoic

21 comments

  2. This current Trump administration is absolutely vile. Probably paid-off by Russians.

  3. We know it’s not about depleted stockpiles. Putin called his minions in Washington and there you go. Washington is now for sale to the highest bidder.

  4. AFAIK, Trump hasn’t approved a single new aid package to Ukraine since being elected. Everything that has gone to Ukraine was already pre-arranged, or simply having them sign off on foreign transfers (EU owned US stuff).

    155 shells is very concerning. We now have 2 factories almost fully operational with 24/7 production. The long term plan for these was to always produce enough not just to maintain the fight in ukraine, but also produce excess for our own reserves that have been emptied.

  5. It is proven that trump and his pos minions are influenced by the kremlin.

  6. The fact that it has nothing to do with deleted stocks was obvious – honestly by now I read news from US admin about the same as I do from kremlin: a disregarding “yeah right”. 

    But what I didn’t expect and appreciate is your analysis. Thanks for clarity.

  7. If the US is negotiating new arms sales in the Middle East, are we to assume those contracts can’t be filled because of “low inventory”? If Ukraine can’t even BUY US-made ordinance, something doesn’t square up with the US government’s military hardware business.

  8. https://www.twz.com/news-features/fears-of-disaster-brewing-for-ukraine-as-u-s-halts-weapons-shipments-over-stockpile-concerns

    I am sick about where we are. The answer was to have invoked the defense production act 3 years ago, but we did not. It is not about this list. It was what was sent before and what will be needed after. It is a demand that has been going on with no end in site and other world hot spots to consider. It is no secret that demand has outstripped production. Calling the AT-4 a gun does not lead analytical confidence. If US weapons are curtailed, then there is no leverage to demand a halt to Ukrainian strikes on ruzzia’s refineries and electrical plants, which I hope resume shortly.

  9. For those who say that they are ruzzian agents or traitors, I don’t think so.

    While I thought so previously, I actually think these are people who are vile, craven short sighted fools who are so full of hubris that they cannot comprehend that America’s any sort of greatness is dependent on the good will of its allies.

    I’ve talked to these people and they are so convinced that the USA can withstand completely against the world and somehow come up on top. They believe that America can take advantage of anybody and everybody, that they can break their agreements and their word to everyone, that they are the most capable and the best and strongest and the richest and …. THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO.

    What they can’t comprehend, is that their shortsighted actions today poison people against them in the future. A ton of lead is as heavy as a ton of feathers. And they keep accumulating the feathers.

  10. Keep calling, keep hitting up their social media! This is unforgivable, they know that and still don’t give one damn! Look at that bill yesterday, that affects his people the most! He doesn’t even care about the idiots that put us all in this situation.

    If you’re like me and your senators support Ukraine, then start calling everybody else’s, be relentless and don’t stop! If you’re on this sub and you’re American, I still believe we will get through this, but not without a lot of noise and a lot of good trouble.

  11. It’s because there’s a Russian asset in the white house

  12. I don’t need a whole article to let me know it’s all BS.

  13. We know, it’s just Trump’s excuse to get out of helping Ukraine.

  16. Funny how this coincides about the same time putin is trying to amass 100k troops. Very funny timing indeed.

  21. We know. It’s because Shitler is an active Russian asset. Always was, always will be. Jail the fuck

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