China tells EU it cannot afford Russian loss in Ukraine war, sources say

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1. Chinese FM Wang Yi told EU leaders, including the bloc’s top diplomat, that the PRC cannot afford a Russian loss in Ukraine because it would mean, in Beijing’s view, that the US would thereafter turn its full attention to strategic competition with China.

   SCMP scooped the minister’s remarks and noted that they surprised multiple EU attendees, who long expected that the PRC wants the US to remain embroiled in the Ukraine War but had not heard Chinese officials say as much publicly or even privately.

   Speaking personally as a US-based political scientist, this news will come as no surprise to the Trump Administration. In fact, IMO they could and perhaps will use this article as fodder to cite when they consider limiting additional military support to Kyiv.

2. Interesting that this story comes from South China Morning Post. But it does make sense that Wang Yi is giving a lesson in realpolitik to nepo baby Kaja Kallas.

3. Doesn’t this, un-ironically, support Trump’s plan/motivation to bring an end to this war, even if it costs Ukraine territory?

   Not sure that is a good trade-off, fwiw. But I’m also a bit worried about the world where China becomes (more?) expansionist.

4. Too bad, anyway…

5. Wang Yi is incompetent, like the last Chinese FM. But part of the problem is that it’s increasingly difficult for China rectify its hostile foreign policy with its need to retain commercial and diplomatic ties to other developed nations.

   This war is largely already a strategic defeat for Russia. It retains control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant but aside from that will have economically and militarily exhausted itself in exchange for mostly strategically useless buffer territory.

   In the end even if Russia cannibalizes more Ukrainian territory, the cost will be too great for it to ever be worth it. The best Russia can hope for is a sort of Pyrrhic victory that it can sell its domestic population as a sort of reaffirmation of its Great Power status. In the end Russia will end up more diplomatically isolated and dependent on China than ever.

   Putin may convince himself that by prolonging the war he can stave off this outcome but I think there’s only so long he can stave off the inevitable.

   In any case for China, the United States is already fully shifting its priorities to East Asia and extricating itself from Europe. Had China played its cards differently it would have been in a position to exploit this and perhaps even drive a wedge in the Trans Atlantic alliance. But they overplayed their hand and there’s no turning back for them now.

6. Europe getting a reality check that their opinions are no longer relevant on the global stage.

7. The mistaken assumption being that the current US administration actually cares about Ukraine. The other mistaken assumption being that Europe isn’t about to go balls to the wall on defence.

8. What a fool he should have stoked Kallas fear of Russia and encourage EU to look east and drag US along. 

9. The EU should start realizing the high price of cheap goods, that could be sourced elsewhere, that they’ve been paying and will be paying, and make necessary adjustments. Russia feels comfortable doing what it does because China is where it is economically today, which has been result of the west allowing it to be latched on by the CCP for its market, capital, and tech. If you love the last 30 years of economic engagement, you are going to love the next 30.

10. wait.a minute there… I thought you guys didn’t want us to be the world police. Funny how that position changes on a dime whenever it suits you.

    myself (American 12th gen) don’t want to see Ukrainian boys dying, Russian boys dying, or even, much as I’m sure it’ll shock you, North Korean boys dying, or for that matter seeing the Chinese people suffer under what can easily be characterized as a direct expression (renamed) of the old Imperial Chinese empire, where a small percentage of the entire population are the only ones who really see comfort and security.

    It’s funny how China, (more accurately The ~200 or so million in the CCP) the country we saved from Japanese domination in WWII, and then after being brushed off by the CCP when they gained power, and their subsequent decades of being a backward hermit imperium, we very kindly uplifted them into the 20th century, only to watch them turn around once again and display the megalomaniacal ideations of world dominion, is complaining now that their plans for dominion are unraveling. They wouldn’t shed a tear if every Russian died to provide a western bulwark to their nation.

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