One of Turkey’s main structural dilemmas in energy production is that external dependency remains stubbornly high. Imported coal power plants—which account for a significant share of electricity generation—bring with them a far more complex chain of risks than meets the eye. Simply put: wherever the coal comes from, the risk comes from there too.

Geopolitical balances and hidden risks

For many years, Russia was Turkey’s largest coal supplier, thanks to its price and logistical advantages. But the war in Ukraine that broke out in 2022, along with European sanctions on Russian coal, forced Turkey to reshuffle its energy cards[^1]. This development made it painfully clear how fragile it can be to rely too heavily on a single source.

To reduce dependence on Russia, Turkey turned to distant geographies like Colombia and South Africa[^2]. Yet this shift brought new challenges: higher freight costs from transoceanic shipping, port congestion, fluctuations in vessel charter rates, and rising domestic political instability in parts of Africa. In the end, imported coal has only written new chapters in Turkey’s story of external dependency.

Economic vulnerability: currency and price shocks

Payments for imported coal are made in US dollars. Thus, even minor fluctuations in the exchange rate can show up almost instantly on electricity bills. In a country like Turkey, where the currency is sensitive, pegging energy imports to foreign exchange creates an inherent vulnerability[^3]. As energy production costs rise, both industries and households end up bearing the burden.

It’s not just the coal itself; transportation, insurance, and port services are also billed in foreign currency. Every crisis in global trade pushes up Turkey’s electricity costs.

The importance and real potential of domestic resources

There have also been positive steps in recent years. New oil production in Gabar, now exceeding 80,000 barrels per day[^4], and the natural gas discoveries in the Black Sea represent strategic moves to reduce external dependency. But the picture is more complicated when it comes to domestic coal.

Turkey’s lignite reserves have relatively low calorific value, meaning they produce less energy compared to imported coal. However, there is a widely held view that with the right technologies and environmental investments, these domestic resources could be used more efficiently[^5]. Of course, this requires significant investment and a long-term strategy.

We cannot ignore the environmental reality

On one side, there’s energy security; on the other, the pressing issue of climate. Coal—regardless of whether it’s “domestic” or “cheap”—remains one of the dirtiest energy sources on the planet. Turkey’s 2053 net-zero target and international commitments like the Paris Agreement make the long-term sustainability of coal-fired power plants increasingly questionable[^6].

That’s why ensuring energy security isn’t as simple as saying “more imported coal” or “more domestic coal.” A balanced mix that includes renewables, nuclear, and domestic resources is essential.

Diversity and strategy are key

Amid geopolitical risks and global crises, Turkey must diversify its long-term energy policy. Imported coal might offer short-term price advantages, but in the long term it represents a serious strategic risk. The solution lies in greater use of domestic resources, stronger investment in renewable energy, and more effective energy diplomacy.

Energy independence isn’t just an economic issue; it’s a political and strategic necessity.

Coal prices may rise and fall, suppliers and ports may change—but one truth remains:

Where the coal comes from, the risk comes from there too.

References

[^1]: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2023 – data on Turkey’s coal imports from Russia and post-2022 shifts.

[^2]: UNCTAD, Review of Maritime Transport 2023 – figures on Turkey’s imports from Colombia and South Africa and related shipping costs.

[^3]: Republic of Turkey Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Electricity Generation Reports, 2023.

[^4]: Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO), 2024 activity report.

[^5]: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2023 – assessment of the potential of Turkey’s domestic lignite reserves.

[^6]: The Paris Climate Agreement and Turkey’s 2053 net-zero target.

Bibliography

• BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2023

• UNCTAD, Review of Maritime Transport 2023

• Republic of Turkey Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Electricity Generation Reports, 2023

• Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO), 2024 activity report

• IEA, World Energy Outlook 2023

• Official Text of the Paris Climate Agreement